Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

03 June 2025

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 3 June 2025

Ikhtisar

Outlook makroekonomi Indonesia menghadapi tekanan seiring kontraksi manufaktur terdalam sejak 2021 dan surplus perdagangan yang menyusut ke level terendah dalam lima tahun. Inflasi mereda ke 1.60% di bulan Mei, memberi ruang bagi Bank Indonesia untuk mempertahankan fleksibilitas moneter, termasuk pemangkasan GWM sekunder yang memberikan suntikan likuiditas bagi perbankan sebesar hampir USD 5 miliar. Namun, permintaan domestik tetap rapuh—masyarakat mulai menurunkan pola konsumsi, dan indeks tabungan konsumen anjlok tajam, mencerminkan tekanan terhadap anggaran rumah tangga. Pemerintah akan mengandalkan stimulus fiskal dan subsidi upah untuk mendorong sentimen, tetapi ekspor yang melemah, PHK, dan surplus yang menipis menunjukkan rapuhnya proses pemulihan. Sementara itu, Danantara tetap menjadi pilar utama mobilisasi investasi, terutama di sektor nikel dan energi terbarukan, meski sempat ada kontroversi akibat isu mundurnya Ray Dalio. Di sektor energi, RUPTL menargetkan kapasitas energi terbarukan sebesar 42.6 GW, namun tetap menyertakan batu bara, memunculkan keraguan terhadap kredibilitas transisi hijau RI. Di tingkat internasional, proyek ASEAN Power Grid dan kerja sama solar-BESS dengan TotalEnergies menunjukkan kemajuan dalam sektor infrastruktur, meski ekspor batu bara menurun dan cadangan kalori tinggi mulai menipis.

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