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Strength
Better-than-expected 10M24 SSSG of 9.3% (guidance: 8.0%, 10M23: 6.8%) on the back of solid results in Java (ex Jakarta) and Ex Java, both recorded +40-50 bps YoY increase in SSSG
Weakness
Weaker Oct-24 consolidated SSSG readings of 4.8% (Sep-24: 8.8%; Oct-23: 5.4%), which we attribute to product mix, seasonality, and worse-than-expected consumer spending due to economic slowdown and shrinking middle class
Opportunity
We expect ex-Java markets to maintain their upbeat momentum; potentially improving purchasing power of mid-to-high income segment should support sales going forward, allowing for reversal from recent market underperformance
Threat
Potential lower commodities prices may adversely impact farmers’ incomes and subsequently ACES’ outer-island stores; import tax on Chinese products, and weak 9M results prompt us to cut our TP to 1,000 (implying 2025 PS of 1.9x)
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