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Overview
Indonesia’s market tone during 20–23 January 2026 was best described as fundamentals improving but pricing fragile, as supportive macro anchors (including the IMF upgrade of Indonesia’s 2026 growth outlook to 5.1% and continued economic diplomacy under Presiden Prabowo) were overshadowed by heightened sensitivity to global duration risk and FX credibility. Early-week equity resilience gave way to a sharp risk-off correction amid heavy foreign selling, while fixed income initially followed UST- and rupiah-driven pressure before stabilizing late-week as UST yields eased. In policy, Bank Indonesia’s decision to hold the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.75% (inline with SSI and consensus) reinforced a clear sequencing strategy—stability first, easing later—with rupiah volatility emerging as the binding constraint for further accommodation.
Overall, the week confirmed that near-term asset performance remains primarily dictated by the UST–IDR transmission channel, while medium-term sentiment remains anchored by improving growth optics, ongoing structural policy experimentation, and pipeline-driven investment narratives.
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