Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

09 November 2023

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Yield 10Y INDOGB masih berpotensi naik ke rentang 6.9-7.1%

Pidato Chairman Federal Reserve Jerome Powell yang tidak membahas suku bunga maupun proyeksi ekonomi mendatang menenangkan pasar global dan mendorong aksi beli, yang tercermin dari turunnya yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -7 dan -4 bps menjadi 4.49% dan 2.62%. Meskipun demikian, kami melihat koreksi di pasar SBN domestik masih akan berlanjut karena jarak antara yield 10Y INDOGB di 6.8% dengan batas bawah JIBOR 1M di 6.66% masih terlalu tipis bila dibandingkan dengan jarak antara yield 5Y dan 2Y INDOGB di 6.74% dan 6.86% dengan JIBOR 1W di 6.25%. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB masih berpotensi terkoreksi ke level 6.9-7.1% dalam beberapa hari ke depan. Untuk hari ini, kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan bergerak naik ke rentang 6.8-6.9%, yang disertai dengan konsolidasi Rupiah di rentang IDR 15,600-15,700 per USD. Dengan kata lain, kami memprediksi berakhirnya kondisi inverted yield curve INDOGB dengan pergerakan bearish, yang didasarkan pada posisi suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M di 7.01%.

Fixed Income News: BI turunkan jumlah rilis SRBI baru menjadi IDR 3tn (3/11: IDR 10.1tn). Keputusan ini diambil walaupun tingkat permintaan terhadap SRBI naik menjadi IDR 11.1tn (3/11: IDR 10.6tn). Sementara itu, tingkat suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M hanya turun tipis menjadi 7.01% (3/11: 7.02%). Menurut kami, ada kemungkinan BI mencoba mengalihkan aksi beli investor di pasar fixed income yang sedang meningkat kembali ke instrumen SBN yang dalam beberapa hari terakhir mengalami bullish rally. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Nowcast Fed Atlanta tunjukkan ekspansi ekonomi AS masih kuat di 2.1% pada awal 4Q23. Walaupun angka nowcast PDB Fed Atlanta jauh lebih tinggi dari proyeksi pasar di 0.8% qoq SAAR, terjadi penurunan yang cukup tajam dibandingkan 3Q23 sebesar 5.4% (25/10; 3Q23 actual: 4.9%). Angka ini juga lebih rendah dari nowcast (27/10) 2.3%. Apabila angka nowcast Atlanta terus turun hingga awal Desember, maka probabilita The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuan FFR di bulan Desember akan tetap rendah di kisaran kurang dari 10%. (Atlanta Federal Reserve)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks keyakinan konsumen naik di bulan Oktober menjadi 124.3 (Sep: 121.7). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh naiknya ketersediaan lapangan kerja pada 6 bulan terakhir menjadi 117.5 (Sep: 109.6). Konsumen juga merasa optimis atas prospek pasar tenaga kerja dalam 6 bulan ke depan, yang tercermin dari kenaikan menjadi 134 (Sep: 129.6). Meskipun demikian, persepsi konsumen terhadap pendapatan turun menjadi 116.4 (Sep: 117.6). Hal ini berpotensi menggerus indeks penjualan ritel yang akan dirilis siang ini. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 November 2023 (Eng)

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