■ *Strong 3Q25 performance thanks to FTTH.* WIFI booked 3Q25 revenue of IDR 501bn (+77.9% QoQ; +155.9% YoY), supported by 400K new ‘Starlite’ subscribers—bringing 9M25 subscribers to 800K and home-passes to 1.5mn. This lifted 9M25 revenue to IDR 1.0tn (+101.0% YoY), or 74.4% of our revised FY25F estimate and 61.8% of consensus. For 2025F, we expect 1.3mn subscribers, translating to nearly IDR 1.4tn in revenue (+103.0% YoY). In 2026F, topline is projected to jump 177.5% YoY to IDR 3.8tn, driven by 2.5mn Starlite users and the rollout of the affordable IDR 100K/month (up to 100 Mbps) ‘Internet Rakyat’ FWA, which already has ~900K pre-registrations.
■ *4Q25 margin rebound on the cards following 3Q25 one-off charges.* In 3Q25, management noted one-off losses from the new office acquisition and corporate action-related fees, pressuring margins. EBITDA margin fell to 50.3% (2Q25: 77.4%; 3Q24: 76.8%) as the digital advertising segment posted –IDR 75bn EBITDA. G&A rose to 16.6% of revenue and interest costs jumped (+256.1% YoY) due to business expansion, while legal and tax expenses from the office purchase reached IDR 35bn. Consequently, net profit came in at IDR 32.2bn, in line with our revised estimate but above consensus. Minority interest also surged to 68.6% after NTT’s investment in IJE. Looking ahead, we expect margins to recover in 4Q25 (EBITDA: 72.8%; EBIT: 55.5%; net: 27.6%) as operations normalize.
■ *Major expansions underway to boost growth going forward.* After securing the 5G FWA spectrum in Region 1 and beginning marketing in Nov-25, WIFI plans to roll out services in Jan-26, targeting ~5.0mn customers in 2026F, with ~900K already pre-registered. We estimate 5G FWA to contribute IDR 904bn to EBITDA and IDR 356bn to net profit in 2026F. For FTTH, WIFI aims for ~5.0mn home-passes and ~3.0mn connects (c.60% take-up), supported by an additional ~2,000 km backbone rollout in Sumatra starting 1Q26F.
■ *Retain BUY with IDR 5,200 TP on positive new FWA business sentiment.* We retain our BUY rating on WIFI with an unchanged TP of IDR 5,200, implying 2027F EV/EBITDA of 7.6x—a 30% discount to the sector. Our analysis also indicates potential upside to IDR 16,000 upon MSCI Global Standard inclusion. We remain positive on WIFI’s fundamentals, supported by the FWA launch and stronger financial capacity for expansion, while the large, underpenetrated FBB market provides meaningful growth runway. Key risks include rollout delays, softer demand from weaker purchasing power, and balance-sheet pressure.
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