Revenue came above on HPC strong performance. In 3Q25, UNVR recorded revenue of IDR 9.5tn (+12.4% YoY; +7.7% QoQ), bringing cumulative 9M25 revenue to IDR 27.6tn (+0.7% YoY), slightly above our and consensus estimates (SSI: 81.1%; Cons: 79.2%). The topline expansion was primarily driven by strong performance in the HPC segment, which grew to IDR 6.1tn (+14.6% YoY; +8.9% QoQ), supported by robust volume growth, with UVG up +11.4% YoY. Meanwhile, the F&R segment rose to IDR 3.3tn (+8.5% YoY; +5.4% QoQ), also backed by solid UVG growth of +8.5% in 3Q25. In terms of market share, UNVR maintained its dominant position at 33.0% (2Q25: 33.1%; 4Q24: 33.3%).

 

Core Profit came inline with ours backed by ASP adjustments. On the profitability front, GPM improved to 49.2% (2Q25: 48.0%; 3Q24: 45.5%) thanks to ASP adjustments and higher sales volumes, resulting in EBIT margin expansion to 16.5% (2Q25: 14.6%; 3Q24: 8.7%). This improvement was driven by lower AnP run-rate of 8.6% (2Q25: 8.6%; 3Q24: 10.8%) and lower transformation costs booked in 3Q25. However, restructuring costs are expected to pick up in 4Q25F (2H24: IDR 500–600bn). Consequently, core profit surged to IDR 1.2tn (+115.6% YoY; +28.4% QoQ), bringing 9M25 bottom line to IDR 3.3tn (+10.7% YoY), broadly in line with both our and consensus estimates (SSI: 72.0%; Cons: 77.0%).

 

Reaping benefits from strategic moves. Amid strong topline performance, we raised our FY25 revenue and net profit forecasts by 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively. UNVR’s better-than-expected topline growth was supported by higher AnP spending, which increased to 8.8% of total sales (5Y-Avg: 7.1%), particularly from digital media advertising, of which share of total AnP expenses has doubled compared to FY20. However, weak domestic purchasing power remains the key challenge in the short to medium term. The ice cream business divestment remains on track for completion in 4Q25, with management planning to distribute special dividends from the separation, bringing total dividend yield to around 7.5%.

 

Maintain BUY on revised-up TP to IDR3,000 and 7.3% dividend yield. Underpinned by agile adoption to allow market share stabilization and transformation strategy, we retain BUY rating and raised our TP of IDR 3,000 (previous: IDR 2,100), implying 2026F P/E of 21.0x and 16.3% upside. Aside from UNVR's 7.5% dividend yield, our positive view is also backed by portfolio expansion to address weak purchasing power, particularly given planned higher FY25F A&P run rate to ~9.0% (2024A: 8.8%; 5-year avg: 7.1%) to help sustain sales volumes. Key risks: 1) softer purchasing power, 2) higher raw materials prices, and 3) weaker IDR.