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Emiten Report

30 March 2023

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TOWR: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,535 – Boosted by Fiber

Boosted by Fiber

EBITDA 4Q22 +26.6% yoy, FY22 +26.5% yoy. Sepanjang 4Q22, pendapatan TOWR tumbuh +14.0% yoy (+4.9% qoq) di tengah penurunan -1,602 tenant menara, namun segmen fiber optic dapat bertumbuh dengan tambahan +17.6k km revenue generating fiber optics. Secara total pada FY22, total tenant bertahan di level 53,967 tenant (-0.01% yoy) serta ada ~151k kms fiber optics yang membantu pendapatan untuk tumbuh +27.8% yoy ke level IDR 11.0 triliun, inline dengan target SSI dan konsensus. Seiring pertumbuhan pendapatan, EBITDA juga terangkat +29.6% yoy di 4Q22 atau +26.5% yoy sepanjang FY22 dengan EBITDA margin 82.8% (vs 84.0% di FY21). Laba bersih 4Q22 naik +21.0% yoy didukung upaya perusahaan menekan beban hutang, meski demikian, secara total pad FY22, laba bersih hanya naik +4.0% yoy ke level IDR 3.6 triliun masih sejalan dengan target SSI (102.9% target FY22) dan 99.8% target konsensus.

Mengembangkan bisnis non-tower. Perusahaan terus mengembangkan segmen bisnis fiber optic (FTTT) dan segmen bisnis connectivity, dimana dari total capex mencapai IDR 5-6 triliun, 50-55% akan digunakan untuk bisnis non-tower. Hal ini cukup beralasan, dimana konsolidasi ISAT dan H3I (Menjadi IOH) yang merupakan pelanggan utama TOWR membuat pertumbuhan menara dalam masa ini lebih banyak digunakan untuk memenuhi relokasi dari IOH. Oleh sebab itu, bisnis non-tower akan menjadi penopang pertumbuhan pendapatan TOWR, hingga masa konsolidasi IOH selesai dan penggunaan teknologi 5G merebak. Untuk memenuhi capex, perusahaan diperkirakan akan membutuhkan dana dari eksternal, dikarenakan level cash yang cukup rendah pada FY22. Namun dengan interest ratio yang terjadi di level 4.1x serta Net Debt/EBITDA 4.2x, maka masih mudah bagi perusahaan mendapat pendanaan.

Outlook 23F. Masih terjadinya konsolidasi IOH membuat kami memproyeksikan pertumbuhan tenant pada FY23F sebesar +2.8% yoy menjadi 55,467 tenant dengan B2S sebesar 500 unit dan kolokasi 1,000. Penyewaan menara masih akan menyumbang pendapatan terbesar bagi TOWR (lebih dari 80%). Pendapatan kami perkirakan akan naik +4.4% yoy, EBITDA +4.0% yoy dan laba bersih +7.4% yoy.

Rekomendasi BUY dengan TP IDR 1,535 (EV/EBITDA 12.9x FY23F). Meski terjadi perlambatan pada pertumbuhan bisnis menara yang dikarenakan konsolidasi industry, namun kami menilai dalam jangka panjang konsolidasi tersebut akan membuat persaingan di industri telekomunikasi menjadi lebih sehat. Maka demikian, dengan potensi jangka panjang tersebut serta adanya tambahan permintaan jika 5G sudah mulai merebak, maka akan berdampak positif bagi industri menara serta TOWR. Oleh sebab itu, kami tetap merekomendasikan BUY saham TOWR (TP IDR 1,535) mencerminkan EV/EBITDA 12.9x FY23F. Risiko utama: Perubahan kebijakan pemerintah terhadap industri menara serta pelemahan permintaan dari para operator telekomunikasi di Indonesia.

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