Flattish 3Q25 revenue: higher ARPU offset by weaker legacy business. ARPU rose to IDR 43.4K (+5.3% QoQ) and subscribers stayed at 157.6mn, but legacy revenue plunged to IDR 1.8tn (-18.2% QoQ; -30.2% YoY), keeping topline flat at IDR 36.6tn. Data payload slipped -3.0% QoQ while yield rose to IDR 3,406/GB, bringing usage down to 14.9GB/month. Overall, 9M25 revenue reached IDR 109.6tn (-2.3% YoY), in line with our 72.2% and consensus 72.0%.

Net profit pressured by higher salary costs and depreciation. EBITDA margin was 49.9% and earnings reached IDR 18.3tn (+2.3% QoQ), but higher salary expenses and IDR 771bn in accelerated depreciation pushed net profit down to IDR 4.81tn (-6.9% QoQ; -18.7% YoY). Net margin dropped to 13.1%, with 9M25 bottom line at IDR 15.8tn (-10.7% YoY), below our 65.8% and consensus 64.7%.

Short-term mediocrity, but the future looks promising on corporate actions. Revenue is expected to grow modestly to IDR 152tn in FY26 (+2.8% YoY), while long-term upside comes from the Infranexia spin-off involving IDR 35.8tn in wholesale fiber assets, strategic investor plans for the data center business, and reducing subsidiaries from 61 to ~19–20. Data usage is projected to rise to 16.3GB/month, supported by additional open-access fiber revenue.

Cut to HOLD with unrevised TP of IDR 3,700 due to limited upside. Despite upcoming partnerships and monetization initiatives, short-term risks remain—competition, slower subscriber growth, and FBB price pressure—leading us to maintain a HOLD rating with TP IDR 3,700, implying 2026F EV/EBITDA of 5.4x and only 4.2% upside.