Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

18 December 2023

By

Surplus neraca dagang November menipis akibat meningkatnya impor menjelang libur akhir tahun

  • Surplus neraca dagang menyusut lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar pada bulan November menjadi USD 2.41bn (Oct: USD 3.47bn; Cons: USD 2.97bn; SSI: USD 3.7bn) akibat pertumbuhan impor yang tidak terduga, terutama impor barang konsumsi dan BBM, menjelang libur Natal dan Tahun Baru.
  • Meskipun harga komoditas, seperti batu bara, minyak sawit (CPO), dan besi baja, terus melemah, nilai ekspor komoditas bergerak stabil pada rentang USD 7-9bn (Nov: USD 8.4bn) sejak 2Q23, yang ditengarai akibat efek kenaikan volume ekspor.
  • Berkaca pada situasi ini, kami tetap mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan untuk FY23 (-0.2% terhadap PDB) dan FY24 (-0.9%).

Surplus neraca dagang Indonesia turun lebih rendah dari konsensus di bulan November menjadi USD 2.41bn (Oct: USD 3.47bn; Cons: USD 2.97bn; SSI: USD 3.7bn). Penurunan tersebut terjadi karena impor tumbuh secara tidak terduga sebesar 3.3% yoy (Oct: -2.4% yoy; Cons: -0.2% yoy; SSI: -9.4% yoy), yang dipicu oleh kenaikan tajam laju impor barang konsumsi menjadi 19.8% yoy (Oct: 3.8% yoy) dan berbaliknya laju impor minyak dan gas (migas) dari kontraksi menjadi bertumbuh sebesar 24.4% yoy (Oct: -4.7% yoy) menjelang libur musiman Natal dan Tahun Baru. Pembalikan laju impor migas menyebabkan kontraksi impor bahan baku menipis menjadi -1% yoy (Oct: -6.1% yoy).

Penurunan laju kontraksi ekspor terus berlanjut di bulan November menjadi -8.6% yoy (Oct: -10.4% yoy; Cons: -9.5% yoy; SSI: -13.3% yoy) akibat kenaikan nilai ekspor komoditas non-migas, seperti batu bara, minyak sawit (CPO), dan besi-baja menjadi USD 8.4bn (Oct: USD 8.3bn). Menurut pengamatan kami, nilai ekspor komoditas non-migas bergerak stabil di rentang USD 7-9bn sejak 2Q23. Hal ini mengindikasikan kenaikan volume ekspor komoditas non-migas, karena sejak awal 2Q23 hingga saat ini harga komoditas masih berada dalam tren bearish atau turun (lihat Chart 1). Meningkatnya volume ekspor komoditas non-migas ditengarai sebagai fondasi dibalik penyusutan laju kontraksi ekspor yang terjadi sejak bulan Agustus (lihat Chart 2).

Berkaca pada hasil bulan November, kami mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan FY23 sebesar -0.2% terhadap PDB. Kami memperkirakan nilai ekspor komoditas non-migas masih akan bertahan dalam kisaran USD 8-9bn di bulan Desember. Dengan mengasumsikan laju impor tetap bertumbuh di bulan Desember (maks. 10% mom) atau bahkan stagnan (0%), surplus neraca dagang kumulatif 4Q23 berpotensi mencapai USD 6.3-8.3bn dan defisit neraca berjalan mencapai USD -2bn hingga -3bn (atau -0.6% hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB untuk 4Q23 stand alone).

Kami juga mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan FY24 di skenario -0.9% terhadap PDB (lihat Chart 3). Proyeksi ini setara dengan level tertinggi proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan Bank Indonesia (-0.1% hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB).

Mempertimbangkan kemungkinan melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan pada 2024 hingga mendekati -1% terhadap PDB, kami memprediksi kemungkinan BI membatasi pemangkasan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di 2024 lebih rendah dari besaran pemangkasan Federal Reserve. Berdasarkan proyeksi Desember FOMC, besaran pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed diperkirakan 75 bps. Namun, pasar melihat proyeksi ini terlalu rendah dan memprediksi dovish pivot sebesar 150 bps menjadi 4%. Dalam kondisi tersebut, kami memprediksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI optimal sebesar 75 bps menjadi 5.25% (lihat Chart 4).

Share This:

Highlights

Economic Data Tracker 2023-12-18 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-12-18 (Eng)

Download PDF

Economic Data Tracker 2023-12-18 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-12-18 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 21, 2024

AKRA: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 20, 2024

GOTO: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 15 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 14 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 14, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Mar 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 7, 2024

PGAS: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,300 – Moderating Outlook

Daily Report

Mar 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Akan Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Mar 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Feb 29, 2024

Automotive Sector – IIMS 2024: EV Steals the Show

Daily Report

Feb 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Feb 28, 2024

JCI is Expected to Go Sideways Today

Emiten Report

Feb 27, 2024

NCKL: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,200 (from 1,500) – More Clarity on the Upcoming Corporate Action

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024