Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

24 May 2023

By

Surplus neraca berjalan dan finansial 1Q23 kondusif bagi pemangkasan suku bunga acuan BI di 3Q23

Surplus neraca berjalan Indonesia turun pada 1Q23 menjadi USD 2.97bn atau 0.9% terhadap PDB akibat pelemahan harga komoditas global yang menggerus surplus neraca dagang barang. Akan tetapi, posisi surplus neraca pembayaran mengalami kenaikan menjadi USD 6.52bn akibat derasnya arus masuk modal asing di 1Q23 yang tercermin dari surplus neraca finansial senilai USD 3.38bn. Kami memperkirakan surplus neraca berjalan dan neraca finansial berpotensi berlanjut di 2Q23. Hal ini berpotensi menjadi katalis positif bagi pemangkasan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia, seven-day reverse repo rate, mulai 3Q23.

Surplus neraca berjalan (current account) Indonesia turun pada 1Q23 menjadi USD 2.97bn atau 0.9% terhadap PDB, masih lebih tinggi dari konsensus tetapi lebih rendah dari proyeksi kami (4Q22: USD 4.18bn atau 0.9% terhadap PDB; Cons 1Q23: USD 2.5bn atau 0.8%; SSI: USD 3.3bn atau 1%). Hal ini disebabkan oleh pelemahan harga komoditas global, yang berakibat pada turunnya surplus neraca dagang barang menjadi USD 14.7bn (4Q22: USD 16.9bn). Surplus neraca dagang barang masih akan berlanjut turun hingga akhir tahun ini sesuai dengan proyeksi awal kami. Hal ini dapat dipantau dari penurunan rata-rata kuartalan harga komoditas unggulan Indonesia, seperti batubara, minyak sawit (CPO) dan nikel yang masing-masing turun sebesar -24.7% qoq, -2.7% qoq dan -11.2% qoq menjadi USD 180, MYR 3,888 dan USD 22,598 per metrik ton untuk 2Q23 yang tengah berjalan (1Q23: USD 239, MYR 3,994 dan USD 23,813 per MT). Oleh sebab itu, kami mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan FY23 sebesar -0.1% terhadap PDB (lihat table 1).

Walaupun surplus neraca berjalan 1Q23 turun, surplus neraca pembayaran 1Q23 meningkat menjadi USD 6.52bn (4Q22: USD 4.73bn) karena derasnya arus masuk modal asing ke pasar finansial Indonesia, terutama pasar obligasi. Hal ini tercermin dari surplus di akun investasi portofolio senilai USD 3bn (4Q22: USD -1.72bn). Pasar obligasi berkontribusi 89.3% terhadap surplus tersebut. Hal ini menyebabkan berbaliknya posisi neraca finansial Indonesia dari defisit pada kuartal sebelumnya menjadi surplus sebesar USD 3.38bn (4Q22: USD -0.12bn). Kami memperkirakan neraca finansial masih akan mencatat surplus pada 2Q23 karena berlanjutnya arus masuk modal asing. Akan tetapi, data untuk periode yang tengah berjalan menunjukkan perubahan kontribusi yang signifikan. Saat ini pasar modal berkontribusi 90% terhadap arus modal masuk asing ke pasar finansial Indonesia (lihat Chart 1). Terhambatnya arus masuk modal asing ke pasar obligasi untuk periode ini disebabkan oleh spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga acuan Federal Reserve menjadi 5.5% dari puncak terminal saat ini di 5.25%.

Kami melihat surplus neraca berjalan dan finansial pada 2Q23 sebagai katalis positif bagi skenario pemangkasan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia di 3Q23. Kami memprediksi surplus neraca berjalan dan finansial masih akan berlanjut pada 2Q23. Surplus neraca berjalan kami perkirakan akan terjadi pada tingkat 12-month rolling sum. Sementara itu, surplus neraca finansial akan didukung oleh potensi arus masuk modal asing ke pasar obligasi. Menurut estimasi kami, masih ada gap senilai USD 13bn agar tingkat kepemilikan obligasi dapat kembali ke level sebelum pandemi (lihat Chart 2).

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Economic Data Tracker 2023-05-23 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-05-23 (Eng)

Download PDF

Economic Data Tracker 2023-05-23 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-05-23 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 21, 2024

AKRA: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 20, 2024

GOTO: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 15 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 14 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 14, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Mar 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 7, 2024

PGAS: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,300 – Moderating Outlook

Daily Report

Mar 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Akan Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Mar 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Feb 29, 2024

Automotive Sector – IIMS 2024: EV Steals the Show

Daily Report

Feb 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Feb 28, 2024

JCI is Expected to Go Sideways Today

Emiten Report

Feb 27, 2024

NCKL: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,200 (from 1,500) – More Clarity on the Upcoming Corporate Action

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024