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16 May 2023

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Surplus neraca berjalan April naik di tengah penurunan tajam aktivitas ekspor-impor

Surplus neraca dagang Indonesia meningkat signifikan di bulan April menjadi USD 3.94bn di tengah kontraksi tajam aktivitas ekspor (-29.4% yoy) dan impor (-22.3% yoy). Kontraksi tajam ekspor dan impor bulan April disebabkan oleh efek libur panjang Lebaran. Sehingga, kami memperkirakan performa ekspor-impor akan membaik di bulan Mei seiring dengan kembali normalnya aktivitas perekonomian. Turunnya harga komoditas tetap menjadi perhatian kami. Akan tetapi, model TOT kami menunjukkan tekanan negatif dari pelemahan harga komoditas berpotensi tertahan di bulan Mei akibat harga minyak mentah yang turun tajam sebesar -33% yoy menjadi USD 75.3 per bbl. Mempertimbangkan kondisi tersebut, kami memprediksi surplus neraca dagang di bulan Mei masih stabil di kisaran USD 3.7-3.9bn. Kami mempertahankan proyeksi rasio neraca berjalan terhadap PDB kami di -0.1% untuk FY23.

Surplus neraca dagang Indonesia meningkat signifikan di bulan April melebihi ekspektasi kami dan konsensus menjadi USD 3.94bn (Mar: 2.83bn, Cons Apr: USD 3.33bn, SSI: USD 3.5bn). Peningkatan ini disebabkan oleh kontraksi impor yang sangat tajam dan di luar dugaan sebesar -22.3% yoy (Mar: -6.3% yoy, Cons Apr: -6% yoy, SSI: -3% yoy). Sehingga, menutupi dampak dari pelemahan ekspor yang semakin tajam dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, yakni sebesar -29.4% yoy (Mar: -11.6% yoy, Cons Apr: 19.3% yoy, SSI: -17% yoy). Sumber utama kontraksi impor di bulan April adalah impor bahan baku (-25.3% yoy vs. Mar: -11.2% yoy) dan barang konsumsi (-17.7% yoy vs. Mar: -2.9% yoy), yang mengindikasikan aktivitas bisnis yang lebih rendah karena libur panjang Lebaran (19-25 April). Kami memperkirakan performa impor akan kembali mebaik di bulan Mei seiring kembali normalnya aktivitas perekonomian.

Sementara itu, performa ekspor di bulan April masih tertekan oleh turunnya harga komoditas. Sepanjang April, harga batubara Newcastle turun -35.4% yoy menjadi rata-rata USD 193.3 per metrik ton, walaupun harga minyak mentah Brent, yang merupakan salah satu komoditas impor utama, juga turun -21.8% yoy menjadi rata-rata USD 83.1 per barel. Sementara itu, harga CPO Malaysia turun -47.7% yoy menjadi MYR 4,022 per MT dan harga nickel LME turun -28.1% yoy menjadi USD 23,813 per MT. Aktivitas bisnis yang lebih rendah karena libur panjang Lebaran turut memiliki andil terhadap kontraksi ekspor yang melebihi prediksi kami dan konsensus.

Kami memprediksi surplus neraca dagang di bulan Mei masih akan bertahan di rentang USD 3.7-3.9bn bila kondisi term-of-trade (TOT) komoditas utama Indonesia bertahan di level saat ini. Model TOT kami memperkirakan kondisi TOT Indonesia masih akan bertahan di level 1.4 pada bulan Mei (lihat chart 1). Hal ini disebabkan oleh turunnya harga minyak mentah Brent sebesar -33% yoy pada bulan Mei menjadi USD 75.3 per barel, meskipun harga CPO Malaysia dan harga batubara Newcastle turun lebih tajam masing-masing sebesar -42.5% yoy dan -60.1% yoy menjadi MYR 3,799 dan USD 170.4 per MT.

Kami menekankan kembali prediksi rasio neraca berjalan terhadap PDB kami untuk tahun ini sebesar -0.1%. Kami memperkirakan rasio neraca berjalan rata-rata 12 bulan Indonesia akan terus melambat secara perlahan dari 1.3% pada 4Q22 menjadi 1% pada 1Q23 (yang datanya akan dirilis Selasa pekan depan (23/5), lalu 0.7% pada 2Q23 dan 0.3% pada 3Q23 (lihat Chart 2 dan Table 1).

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