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24 November 2023

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Stabilitas Rupiah masih menjadi prioritas BI

  • Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di level 6% sesuai dengan konsensus (Oct: & Cons: 6%) akibat defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 yang lebih rendah dari ekspektasi.
  • Menurut kami, BI masih berpeluang menaikkan suku bunga 7DRRR di bulan Desember atau bahkan pada paruh pertama 1Q24 karena risiko volatilitas Rupiah yang dipicu oleh pelebaran defisit neraca berjalan.
  • Pelebaran defisit neraca berjalan menjadi risiko utama di 2024 akibat overheating ekonomi berdasarkan analisa Hodrick-Prescott, dengan referensi overheating ekonomi sebelumnya pada periode 2017-2019.

Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di level 6% pada pengumuman Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI hari Kamis tanggal (23/11), sejalan dengan konsensus (Oct: & Cons: 6%; SSI: 6.25%). Awalnya, kami memprediksi BI akan menaikkan suku bunga pada rapat RDG kemarin. Akan tetapi, peluang kenaikan tersebut menurun signifikan karena rilis data defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 yang lebih rendah dari konsensus maupun ekspektasi kami USD -859.6mn (2Q23: USD -2.21bn; Cons: USD -1.82bn; SSI: USD -2bn). Menurut kami, BI tetap berpeluang menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6.25% pada bulan Desember atau bahkan paruh pertama 1Q24, bila Rupiah terdepresiasi tiba-tiba menuju rentang IDR 15,700-15,900 per USD akibat melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan (lihat proyeksi kami pada Tabel 1).

Menurut kami, Indonesia masih akan menghadapi risiko volatilitas nilai tukar di 2024 dalam bentuk overshooting. Penilaian risiko ini didasarkan ada analisa Hodrick-Prescott yang menunjukkan gejala overheating ekonomi (lihat Chart 1). Berdasarkan pengalaman overheating sebelumnya di tahun 2017-2019, situasi tersebut menyebabkan akselerasi kenaikan defisit neraca berjalan dari -0.8% terhadap PDB pada 1Q17 menjadi -3.7% pada 4Q18, walaupun pertumbuhan PDB stabil di kisaran 5-5.3% yoy (lihat Chart 2). Akibat peristiwa tersebut, nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami overshooting pada periode Januari-Oktober 2018, dan kondisi overshooting tersebut baru berakhir pada bulan Februari 2019 seiring apresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,000-14,200 per USD (lihat Chart 3).

Walaupun Indonesia menghadapi risiko overshooting di 2024 akibat potensi terjadinya defisit anggaran hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB, kami memperkirakan risiko ini masih dapat ditanggulangi oleh BI maupun Kementerian Keuangan melalui kontrol ketat terhadap kebijakan stimulus moneter dan fiskal, selama Pemilu 2024 yang berlangsung hingga bulan Juni 2024 (asumsi pencoblosan 2 putaran). Kontrol atas stimulus fiskal dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga defisit anggaran FY23 di level -2% terhadap PDB atau bahkan lebih rendah. Selain itu, target defisit anggaran FY24 -2.29% (lebih rendah lebih baik) juga mencukupi. Dari sisi moneter, kami memprediksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI yang lebih rendah dari The Fed, yakni sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.75% untuk FY24 (Vs. Fed 100 bps menjadi 4.5%) dan 75 bps untuk FY25 (Vs. Fed 150 bps menjadi 3%). Menurut kami, pemangkasan suku bunga BI yang lebih rendah dari The Fed di 2024 dan 2025 krusial untuk memperlebar selisih suku bunga acuan (policy rate spread) menjadi 200-250 bps dari posisi saat ini di 50 bps. Hal ini penting untuk mengantisipasi menipisnya selisih inflasi antara BI dengan Fed di masa depan (lihat Chart 4).

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