Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

24 November 2023

By

Stabilitas Rupiah masih menjadi prioritas BI

  • Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di level 6% sesuai dengan konsensus (Oct: & Cons: 6%) akibat defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 yang lebih rendah dari ekspektasi.
  • Menurut kami, BI masih berpeluang menaikkan suku bunga 7DRRR di bulan Desember atau bahkan pada paruh pertama 1Q24 karena risiko volatilitas Rupiah yang dipicu oleh pelebaran defisit neraca berjalan.
  • Pelebaran defisit neraca berjalan menjadi risiko utama di 2024 akibat overheating ekonomi berdasarkan analisa Hodrick-Prescott, dengan referensi overheating ekonomi sebelumnya pada periode 2017-2019.

Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di level 6% pada pengumuman Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI hari Kamis tanggal (23/11), sejalan dengan konsensus (Oct: & Cons: 6%; SSI: 6.25%). Awalnya, kami memprediksi BI akan menaikkan suku bunga pada rapat RDG kemarin. Akan tetapi, peluang kenaikan tersebut menurun signifikan karena rilis data defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 yang lebih rendah dari konsensus maupun ekspektasi kami USD -859.6mn (2Q23: USD -2.21bn; Cons: USD -1.82bn; SSI: USD -2bn). Menurut kami, BI tetap berpeluang menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6.25% pada bulan Desember atau bahkan paruh pertama 1Q24, bila Rupiah terdepresiasi tiba-tiba menuju rentang IDR 15,700-15,900 per USD akibat melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan (lihat proyeksi kami pada Tabel 1).

Menurut kami, Indonesia masih akan menghadapi risiko volatilitas nilai tukar di 2024 dalam bentuk overshooting. Penilaian risiko ini didasarkan ada analisa Hodrick-Prescott yang menunjukkan gejala overheating ekonomi (lihat Chart 1). Berdasarkan pengalaman overheating sebelumnya di tahun 2017-2019, situasi tersebut menyebabkan akselerasi kenaikan defisit neraca berjalan dari -0.8% terhadap PDB pada 1Q17 menjadi -3.7% pada 4Q18, walaupun pertumbuhan PDB stabil di kisaran 5-5.3% yoy (lihat Chart 2). Akibat peristiwa tersebut, nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami overshooting pada periode Januari-Oktober 2018, dan kondisi overshooting tersebut baru berakhir pada bulan Februari 2019 seiring apresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,000-14,200 per USD (lihat Chart 3).

Walaupun Indonesia menghadapi risiko overshooting di 2024 akibat potensi terjadinya defisit anggaran hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB, kami memperkirakan risiko ini masih dapat ditanggulangi oleh BI maupun Kementerian Keuangan melalui kontrol ketat terhadap kebijakan stimulus moneter dan fiskal, selama Pemilu 2024 yang berlangsung hingga bulan Juni 2024 (asumsi pencoblosan 2 putaran). Kontrol atas stimulus fiskal dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga defisit anggaran FY23 di level -2% terhadap PDB atau bahkan lebih rendah. Selain itu, target defisit anggaran FY24 -2.29% (lebih rendah lebih baik) juga mencukupi. Dari sisi moneter, kami memprediksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI yang lebih rendah dari The Fed, yakni sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.75% untuk FY24 (Vs. Fed 100 bps menjadi 4.5%) dan 75 bps untuk FY25 (Vs. Fed 150 bps menjadi 3%). Menurut kami, pemangkasan suku bunga BI yang lebih rendah dari The Fed di 2024 dan 2025 krusial untuk memperlebar selisih suku bunga acuan (policy rate spread) menjadi 200-250 bps dari posisi saat ini di 50 bps. Hal ini penting untuk mengantisipasi menipisnya selisih inflasi antara BI dengan Fed di masa depan (lihat Chart 4).

Share This:

Highlights

Economic Data Tracker 2023-11-23 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-11-23 (Eng)

Download PDF

Economic Data Tracker 2023-11-23 (Ind)
Economic Data Tracker 2023-11-23 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 15 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 29, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 29 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 29, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 28, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 28 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 28, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 27, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 27 December 2023 (window dressing)

Daily Report

Dec 27, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 22, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 22 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 22, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan pada bulan Desember di tengah euforia dovish pivot

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Outlook 2024 – Global Dovish Pivot Euphoria

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Waspadai batas resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST di 3.8%

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 21, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 21 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

Market players are disappointed with the BoJ’s policy

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 20, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 20 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

Waspadai overbought instrumen INDOGB dan INDON

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 19, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 19 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot The Fed meluas ke ECB

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Surplus neraca dagang November menipis akibat meningkatnya impor menjelang libur akhir tahun

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 18, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 18 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 15, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight – 11M23 Auto Sales

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 15, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 15 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Cement Sector: 11M23 Cement Sales

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Strategy report – 2024 Market Outlook

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

Gap IHSG Vs. LQ 45 & IDX 80 tekan Rupiah, SBN; Pasar proyeksikan pemangkasan 150 bps Vs. Fed: 75 bps

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 14, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 14 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

Asa pasar terhadap ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed masih belum pupus

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 13, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 13 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 12, 2023

GOTO: BUY (From HOLD), TP at 120 – A New Hope

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 12, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 12 December 2023

Economic & Fixed Income

Dec 11, 2023

Menguatnya pasar tenaga kerja AS picu aksi jual UST

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 11, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 11 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 11, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

Waspadai efek BOJ dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 8, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 08 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Emiten Report

Dec 7, 2023

BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 6,100 – Notes from Analyst Gathering

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

Yield 10Y UST sentuh 4.1% akibat ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 7, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 07 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

Bullish rally global berlanjut, waspadai apresiasi USD

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 6, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Desember 2023

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 5, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Desember 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

NCKL: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,500 – Buying Manhattan for Beads

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

Banking Sector – Overweight – 10M23 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Dec 4, 2023

Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Weekly 2023-12-4

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 4, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 04 Desember 2023