Coffee prices plummeted -3.6% over the past five days, primarily driven by liquidation pressures following the month-long rally that pushed prices to 10Y high of USD 425/lbs. Despite the decline, prices remain elevated amid ongoing supply concerns stemming from below-normal rainfall in Brazil. High coffee prices are likely to have the most significant impact on MYOR (13% of COGS).
Sugar prices surged 4.5% last week, mainly due to supply concerns in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer. India’s current season output may decline to 26 mt (1 mt lower than expected) due to red rot disease epidemic affecting Uttar Pradesh, the country’s top sugar-producing region. The spike in sugar prices is expected to impact consumer companies in the following pecking order: MYOR>CMRY>SIDO>ULTJ>KLBF>UNVR>ICBP.
Wheat prices jumped 5.3%, driven by cold weather risks in Black Sea grain-producing regions, which could damage crops and tighten overall global supply. Additionally, Saudi Arabia booked 920kt of wheat for delivery between May and July, 55% more than initial estimate. The rise in wheat prices is expected to have the most significant impact on ICBP (28% of COGS) and MYOR (9% of COGS).
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