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31 January 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (20 – 24 January 2025)

In 20 – 24 January 2025, avg. broiler prices fell to IDR 20,158/kg (-4.2% WoW/1.9% MoM/-6.1% YTD), while avg. DOC prices spiked to IDR 7,150 (YTD average: IDR 4,647). We attribute the surge in DOC prices to the government’s decision to raise corn’s purchase-reference-price to IDR 5,500/kg (+10%, effective Feb-25).

For raw materials, domestic corn prices declined -2.1% WoW, averaging IDR 4,694/kg (YTD: +3.1%), while SBM slightly increased to USD 310/t (+2.7% WoW), with YTD average of USD 306/t (YTD: +0.6%). Below-average rainfall, expected to persist through Mar-25, provided price support for SBM.

Despite recent increase, we expect limited upside for soybean meal prices, potentially supporting poultry players’ profit margins. Within our poultry coverage, JPFA and MAIN appear to have the most attractive valuations, supported by performance factors, such as voluntary culling, and favorable government policies, including free meal programs and lower GPS import quotas (compared to 2023).

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