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Daily Report

04 September 2023

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Sentimen risk-off masih mendominasi pasar global

Sentimen risk-off masih mendominasi pasar global, walaupun hasi rilis data pasar tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat menunjukkan perlambatan ekspansi di bulan Agustus yang tercermin dari naiknya tingkat pengangguran menjadi 3.8% serta revisi turun data non-farm payrolls (lihat global economic news). Yield 10Y UST dan Bund naik masing-masing sebesar 7 dan 8 bps menjadi 4.18% dan 2.55% karena ekspektasi ditundanya pemangkasan suku bunga Fed hingga 2Q24. Menurut kami, kondisi ini masih kondusif bagi pelebaran yield spread INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y menuju 30-40 bps melalui penurunan 2Y INDOGB menuju target floor limit JIBOR 1W di 6% (per Jumat lalu (1/9) turun -2 bps menjadi 6.26%). Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan mengalami konsolidasi pada rentang 6.35-6.45% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah menghadapi tekanan depresiasi menuju rentang 15,200-15,300 per USD karena berlanjuntnya penguatan indeks dolar sebesar 0.6% menjadi 104.2 Jumat lalu.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian BUMN akan berikan dana PMN untuk WSKT setelah merger dengan Hutama Karya. Pernyataan ini dirilis oleh Wakil Menteri BUMN I Kartika Wijoatmodjo setelah sejumlah vendor PT Waskita Karya (WSKT) mengajukan PKPU kembali pada tanggal 25 Agustus dengan masa sidang pertama di tanggal 5 September mendatang. Saat ini, Kementerian BUMN tengah bernegosiasi dengan para kreditur perbankan untuk menyelesaikan utang jangka panjang WSKT. Kami memperkirakan proses negosiasi ini baru akan selesai setelah pemilu legislatif dan pemilihan presiden 2024. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Tingkat pengangguran AS naik pada bulan Agustus menjadi 3.8% (Jul: & Cons: 3.5%). Kenaikan juga terjadi pada tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja menjadi 62.8% (Jul: & Cons: 62.6%). Nonfarm payrolls naik lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pasar menjadi 187,000 (Cons: 170,000), tetapi data untuk bulan Juli direvisi turun menjadi 157,000 (prev: 187,000). Hasil rilis yang lebih baik dari konsensus membuat para pelaku pasar yakin kalua The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga FFR sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.75% pada 4Q23. Akan tetapi, mereka memprediksi The Fed tetap akan mempertahankan retorika hawkish. Sehingga, awal siklus pemangkasan suku bunga Fed baru akan dimulai di 2Q24. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: PMI manufaktur kembali naik di bulan Agustus menjadi 53.9 (Jul: 53.3). Peningkatan aktivitas manufaktur disebabkan oleh kenaikan jumlah permintaan baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Di tengah situasi ini, inflasi harga input turun ke posisi terendah sejak Oktober 2020. Kenaikan marjin keuntungan memungkinkan para produsen untuk meningkatkan penyerapan tenaga kerja guna menyelesaikan pekerjaan yang sempat tertunda selama dua bulan berturut-turut. Kondisi ini berdampak positif terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan output manufaktur di 3Q23. (S&P Global)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 September 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 September 2023 (Ind)

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