Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

03 November 2023

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Samuel’s Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes

Tetap hati-hati sikapi berlanjutnya bullish rally pasca-pengumuman FOMC

• Rebound di pasar saham global terus berlanjut tadi malam, bahkan lebih kuat daripada sehari sebelumnya pasca-pengumuman FOMC.
• Rebound juga terjadi di pasar komoditas global, terutama harga energi.
• Kami menyarankan investor untuk tetap bersikap waspada menjelang pengumuman keputusan MKMK minggu depan.

Bullish rally di pasar saham global terus berlanjut pasca-pengumuman FOMC, yang ditandai dengan kenaikan indeks-indeks saham di Amerika Serikat maupun Eropa masing-masing sebesar 1.7-1.9% dan 1-4-1.9%. Hal ini akan berdampak positif atas indeks-indeks saham di emerging market dan Asia, kecuali Jepang yang naik 1.6% dan 1.5%, termasuk Indonesia yang mencatat rebound 1.6% setelah turun (-1.6)% sehari sebelumnya akibat ketidakpastian politik.

Sektor teknologi dan properti mencatat rebound terkuat dengan kenaikan masing-masing 3.5% dan 2.4%, yang selanjutnya diikuti sektor basic materials (1.8%) serta finansial (1.4%). Sedangkan, sektor infrastruktur turun (-1.4)%.

Bullish rally juga terjadi di pasar komoditas dengan kenaikan indeks S&P-Goldman Sachs 1.1%. Harga energi memimpin rebound di pasar komoditas dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah Brent sebesar 2.6%, WTI 2.5% dan batubara Newcastle 1.2%.

Di tengah menguatnya sentimen bullish pasar global, ketidakpastian politik masih membayang-bayangi IHSG. Pernyataan Majelis Kehormatan Mahkamah Konstitusi tentang terkumpulnya bukti-bukti yang cukup atas dugaan pelanggaran etik oleh sejumlah hakim konstitusi semakin membuka peluang bagi pembatalan putusan MK mengenai batas usia capres-cawapres.

Sejumlah pelaku pasar, mulai melakukan spekulasi terhadap kemungkinan capres Prabowo Subianto mengganti pasangan cawapresnya menjadi Erick Thohir. Hal ini didasarkan pada pertemuan antara mereka di kediaman Erick Thohir pada tanggal (31/10). Walaupun aksi ini termasuk spekulatif, kami tidak menutup kemungkinan terhadap perubahan keputusan politik besar setelah pengumuman keputusan oleh MKMK minggu depan.

Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi strategi defensif dengan pilihan sektor sesuai rekomendasi di bawah ini.

Sector Recommendation: Food retailers, cigarettes, infrastructures, health.

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 3 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 3 November 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 3 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 3 November 2023 (Ind)

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