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■ Growth Momentum Strengthens Into 2026: Indonesia closed 2025 with strong domestic-driven expansion, as 4Q25 GDP rose 5.39% YoY, lifting full-year growth to 5.11% YoY — the strongest in three years. The acceleration was anchored in resilient household consumption (5.11% YoY) and a sharp rebound in fixed investment (6.12% YoY), confirming normalization of private-sector activity beyond fiscal support.
■ External Buffers Remain a Major Stability Anchor: FX reserves eased modestly to USD 154.6bn in January (vs SSI USD 155bn forecast) due to debt repayments and BI’s tactical FX stabilization, but remain exceptionally strong at 6.3 months of import cover. Coupled with a robust USD 41.05bn FY25 trade surplus, Indonesia’s external position continues to provide substantial shock-absorption capacity amid global volatility.
■ Inflation Spike Is Policy-Driven, Not Demand-Driven: Headline inflation jumped to 3.55% YoY in January (from 2.92%), largely reflecting administered electricity tariff normalization, with housing inflation surging 11.93% YoY. Underlying pressures remain contained as monthly CPI contracted -0.15% and food and service inflation softened, supporting the view that inflation will normalize post-Lebaran in 2Q26.
■ Real-Sector Momentum Remains Constructive Despite Supply Frictions: Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 52.6 (six consecutive months of expansion), driven by rising output, new orders, inventory rebuilding, and business confidence at a ten-month high. However, delivery delays and rising backlogs signal tightening capacity utilization that warrants monitoring for future cost pressures.
■ Market Volatility Elevated as Credibility Becomes the Key Risk Channel: Moody’s affirmed Indonesia’s Baa2 sovereign rating but revised the outlook to negative, citing policy predictability and governance risks rather than macro weakness. While bonds remain supported by carry and equities by domestic flows, FX sensitivity and global yield pressures are keeping risk premiums volatile — reinforcing the importance of BI stabilization and reform execution in anchoring investor confidence.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
