Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

15 December 2025

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Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 15 December 2025

Highlights

  • Domestic Demand Holds, Credit Lags: Consumption momentum strengthened into year-end, but weak MSME credit and labor-quality issues remain binding constraints.

 

  • Disaster Shock Becomes Macro-Fiscal Variable: Sumatra floods now materially affect fiscal allocation, regional output, and governance risk.

 

  • Policy Bias Shifts to Control & Reallocation: Export-receipt tightening, SOE discipline, and selective energy recalibration reflect a liquidity- and stability-first stance.

 

  • Markets Consolidate, Not De-risk: Equities and bonds moved sideways, indicating rotation and positioning rather than loss of confidence.

 

  • Global Easing Is Shallow: Fed cuts reduce tail risk but do not materially loosen financial conditions; FX and yield volatility remain key channels.

Overview

Indonesia enters mid-December with a macro configuration defined by resilient consumption, weak credit transmission, disaster-driven fiscal reallocation, and a still-tight global financial environment. The Sumatra disaster has transitioned from a humanitarian crisis into a macro variable affecting budget execution, regional productivity, and governance credibility. Markets reflect this balance: consolidation rather than stress. The central challenge is no longer stimulus calibration, but execution quality across fiscal, credit, and institutional channels.

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