Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

01 June 2025

By

Samuel Monthly Economic Insights

Highlights

  • Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Diturunkan: Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia 2025 dipangkas ke bawah 5% akibat lemahnya konsumsi rumah tangga, PHK yang menimpa lebih dari 24,000 orang, dan serapan fiskal yang lambat. Sebagai catatan, pertumbuhan PDB Q1 hanya mencapai 4.87% YoY.

 

  • Stimulus Moneter dan Fiskal Digulirkan: BI memangkas suku bunga acuan ke 5.50%, disertai stimulus konsumsi enam poin dari pemerintah yang berlaku mulai Juni, untuk memulihkan daya beli pasca-Ramadan.

 

  • Posisi Eksternal Menguat: Defisit transaksi berjalan (CAD) Q1 menyempit drastis menjadi 0.1% PDB, ditopang surplus perdagangan; namun neraca jasa dan pendapatan masih rentan terhadap tekanan tarif global.

 

  • Akselerasi Reformasi Struktural: SWF Danantara mempercepat konsolidasi BUMN. Pemerintah meluncurkan kerangka KEM-PPKF 2026 yang menekankan keberlanjutan fiskal, kemandirian energi, dan digitalisasi, meski pendapatan negara menurun.

 

  • Kekhawatiran Tata Kelola dan Sosial Meningkat: Di tengah kemajuan AI dan infrastruktur digital, muncul kekhawatiran terhadap kemunduran demokrasi, kesenjangan inklusi sosial, lemahnya regulasi gig economy, dan tekanan ESG di sektor ekstraktif.

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