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■ Fundamentals improving, markets remain fragile under external shocks: Growth outlook strengthened with IMF’s 2026 upgrade to 5.1% and continued state-led investment momentum, but asset pricing stayed highly sensitive to FX volatility, Trump-driven geopolitical risk premium, and headline-driven global flows.
■ Monetary policy anchored by stability sequencing at home, cautious pause abroad: Bank Indonesia held the 7-Day Repo at 4.75% in line with SSI’s view, prioritizing rupiah stability, while the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, reinforcing a supportive but data-dependent global liquidity backdrop for EM assets.
■ Trump shocks re-emerge as dominant volatility trigger across FX, yields, and risk appetite: Tariff escalation on Iran trading partners reinforced geopolitical risk premium, validating SSI’s VAR framework that US 10Y yield spikes precede abrupt Trump interventions and transmit directly into rupiah weakness and domestic yield repricing.
■ MSCI freeze exposes structural equity market vulnerability: MSCI’s temporary halt on index rebalancing triggered a historic IHSG correction, with SSI research showing MSCI shocks explain ~35% of equity volatility and nearly a third of FX and bond yield movements—turning market credibility into a macro-financial risk variable.
■ Bonds defensive, equities volatile but selective opportunity remains: FR yields stayed biased upward amid FX sensitivity and soft liquidity, while equities rotated into cyclical and commodity-linked names when risk sentiment stabilized—signaling fundamentals are supportive, but volatility will dominate near-term trading.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
