Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

30 November 2025

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Samuel Monthly Economic Insights 1 December 2025

Highlights

  • Solid Growth Path Maintained: Indonesia’s GDP stood at 5.04% YoY in 3Q25, steady though still supported by fiscal push — consumption is improving gradually while investment signals remain selective.

 

  • Fiscal Tightness Into Year-End: With the deficit at 2.02% of GDP (IDR 479.7T) as of October and ~IDR 934T still requiring disbursement, fiscal execution will determine the final 2025 balance and the strength of early-2026 momentum.

 

  • External Position Strengthened: Trade surplus held at USD 4.34bn, while the current account swung to a USD 4.0bn surplus (1.1% GDP) — the first positive balance since early 2023.

 

  • MBG Reshaping Supply & Prices: Free-Nutritious Meal demand has materially increased poultry and egg consumption, expanding agricultural throughput but tightening feed-chain pricing.

 

  • Technology Realignment Accelerates: China’s domestic AI-chip mandate illustrated global supply-chain bifurcation — increasing urgency for Indonesia to secure semiconductor and compute infrastructure pathways.

 

  • Liquidity & Credit Pulse: IDR 200T Himbara liquidity injection accelerated lending, though cooperative-risk exposure signals a need for stronger credit controls.

 

  • Cultural Capacity Expanded: Bahasa Indonesia was officially adopted as a UNESCO working language — elevating Indonesia’s cultural and diplomatic reach.

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