Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

07 January 2026

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 7 January 2026

Overview

Indonesia enters early 2026 amid a complex mix of external shocks, domestic stabilization efforts, and ongoing disaster recovery. Global geopolitical risks remain elevated following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, although direct spillovers to Indonesian operations appear limited so far. Externally, Indonesia is facing weaker export momentum, particularly from commodities such as coal and oil and gas, even as the trade balance remains in surplus. Inflation pressures have re-emerged, driven largely by food prices and rising global gold prices, but remain within Bank Indonesia’s target range. Domestic policy continues to prioritize energy security, food self-sufficiency, and purchasing power protection through fiscal support measures. Fuel supply management has become a focal point after last year’s retail shortages, prompting regulatory adjustments for 2026. The government has also highlighted achievements in agricultural self-sufficiency, particularly in rice and corn. Politically, President Prabowo has sought to position his administration as inclusive and open to criticism while defending flagship social programs. Disaster response in Sumatra continues to shape both policy attention and public discourse. Overall, Indonesia’s macro backdrop reflects resilience, but with clear signs of moderation and rising execution risks.

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