Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

22 February 2023

By

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

MARKET PREVIEW

  • Bursa saham AS di sesi sebelumnya terjerembab dengan penurunan paling tajam sejak awal tahun ini setelah pasar merespon negative pengumuman indeks composite PMI S&P AS yang rebound ke zona ekspansif didorong oleh sector jasa setelah terpojok di kuadran konstaksi sejak Juli tahun lalu. Dari sisi manufacturing, PMI di AS sudah mulai menunjukan perbaikan kendati masih terperangkap di zona kontraktif.
  • Akibatnya, pelaku pasar global semakin percaya bahwa The Fed mungkin akan menahan stance kebijakan moneter yang hawkish untuk jangka waktu yang lebih lama disbanding perkiraan sebelumnya. Saat ini, di pasar future, traders yang bertaruh bahwa The Fed akan langsung menaikan bunga acuan sebanyak 50bps di FOMC meeting bulan Maret nanti sudah bertambah menjadi 25.5% dengan ekspektasi kenaikan 25bps tetap mendominasi dengan 74.5%, dan semakin banyak traders yang berharap bunga acuan akan ditahan di terminal rate 5.50% sampai akhir tahun ini. Karenanya, imbal hasil UST 10Y kembali melonjak 14bps ke 3.95%, posisi tertinggi di tahun ini.
  • Dengan semakin intensifnya tekanan eksternal yang berasal dari kenaikan yield UST, maka kami melihat aksi jual akan lebih mendominasi perdagangan di pasar SBN domestic pada hari ini dengan imbal hasil SUN 10Y mengarah ke level 6.77% serta Rupiah berpotensi untuk terdepresiasi mendekati level 15,200/USD.

 

GLOBAL ECON

PMI sektor manufaktur AS naik pada Februari menjadi 47.8 (prev: 46.9). Sementara itu, PMI sektor jasa Amerika Serikat berbalik kembali ke zona ekspansi di 50.5 dari sebelumnya di zona kontraksi (prev: 46.8) (Wall Street Journal) Comment: Perbaikan skor PMI AS pada Februari membuat para pelaku pasar semakin pesimistis terhadap prospek keaikan suku bunga the Fed. Saat ini 58% dari analis yang disurvei oleh CME Group yakin bahwa puncak suku bunga Fed akan mencapai 5.5% pada Juni 2023. Hal ini menyebabkan aksi jual di pasar saham AS. Kami memperkirakan sentiment pasar AS akan tetap negatif hingga data pasar tenaga kerja AS menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan yang signifikan.

PMI sektor manufaktur zona Euro bertahan di zona kontraksi pada Februari 48.5 (prev: 48.8). Sementara itu, PMI sektor jasa zona Euro naik menjadi 53 (prev: 50.8). (Investing) Comment: Membaiknya PMI sektor jasa di zona Euro menunjukkan sebuah titik terang bahwa resesi ekonomi di Eropa berpotensi berakhir setelah 1Q23. Menurut kami, hal ini akan memudahkan kerja Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk menurunkan inflasi di zona Euro yang masih tinggi. Kenaikan suku bunga acuan ECB masih akan berlanjut dengan perkiraan puncak di 3.5% yang diperkirakan akan dicapai pada Juni 2023.

Inflasi Kananda berlanjut turun pada Januari menjadi 5.9% yoy (prev: 6.3% yoy). Angka ini lebih baik daripada ekspektasi pasar (cons: 6.1% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti Kanada juga turun menjadi 5% yoy (prev: 5.4% yoy). (CNBC) Comment: Membaiknya kondisi inflasi di Kanada berpotensi mendorong Bank Sentral Kanada (BOC) untuk mengakhiri kenaikan suku bunga lebih awal dibandingkan dengan the Fed. Sebelumnya suku bunga acuan BOC naik 25 bps menjadi 4.5%. Kami memperkirakan penghentian kenaikan suku bunga Kanada akan bersifat taktis dan sementara, bergantung pada seberapa cepat laju penurunan inflasi hingga mencapai target 2% dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

DOMESTIC ECON

Presiden sudah mengirimkan daftar calon Gubernur BI baru kepada DPR. Presiden Joko Widodo dikabarkan mengirim surat berisi daftar calon gubernur BI untuk mengisi jabatan Perry Warjiyo yang akan berakhir pada Mei nanti. Namun Presiden menolak untuk membuka informasi calon tersebut kepada publik. (Bisnis Indonesia) Comment: Dari berbagai media, diisukan Presiden mengajukan tiga calon yakni Gubernur BI sekarang, Perry Warjiyo, Menteri Keuangan sekarang, Sri Mulyani, dan Ketua Dewan Komisioner LPS sekarang, Purbaya Sadewa. Kami melihat siapa pun yang terpilh akan tetap menjalankan fungsi bank sentral dengan transparan dan independen, terlebih menghadapi tantangan eksternal yang berpotensi menggoyang stabilitas nilai tukar kedepannya.

FIXED INCOME

Penawaran masuk di lelang SBSN kemarin mencapai IDR26,3 Tn. Dimana paling banyak masuk ke tenor acuan yakni 6M dan 13Y, serta pemerintah memenangkan sebanyak IDR14,0 Tn atau tercapai bid-to-cover ratio di level 1.88x yang mana turun sedikit dibanding lelang SBSN sebelumnya (Investor Daily) Comment: Appetite yang masih terjaga di lelang kemarin merupakan kepercayaan terhadap pasar SUN di tengah pembalikan ekspektasi pasar global mengenai keberlanjutan kebijakan moneter ketat The Fed saat ini.

BUY Recommendation: FR0081, FR0047, FR0073, FR0037, FR0088, FR0054.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Februari 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Februari 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Februari 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Februari 2023 (Ind)

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