Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

17 November 2023

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Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report 17 November 2023

Aksi beli di pasar yang fragmented dan tidak koheren

Pasar INDOGB kembali menunjukkan pergerakan yang terpenggal (fragmented) dan tidak koheren. Yield 10Y INDOGB tetap bertahan di level 6.95%, meskipun bond trader notes kami menunjukkan yield FR0096 kembali turun menjadi 6.7%. Gerak yield FR0100 juga menunjukkan penurunan ke 6.7% menurut tabel valuasi kami di halaman kedua. Walaupun situasi ini sulit untuk dipahami, kami melihat animo beli yang cukup kuat di kalangan investor domestik. Ada kemungkinan aksi beli hari ini akan semakin kuat dengan turunnya yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -10 dan -5 bps menjadi 4.44% dan 2.59%, yang diikuti kenaikan indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market 0.5% dan S&P untuk developed market 0.4%. Apabila aksi beli terus berlanjut, kami mengingatkan investor untuk tetap waspada terhadap batas bawah yield 10Y di level JIBOR 1M (6.66%) serta capital outflow dari pasar SBN yang terus berlangsung sejak Kamis pekan lalu (9/11). Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB berfluktuasi di rentang 6.7-6.9% berdasarkan kondisi data yang ada, yang diikuti konsolidasi Rupiah di rentang IDR 15,500-15,600 per USD.

Fixed Income News: BI akan laksanakan lelang SVBI dan SuVBI perdana hari ini. Instrumen SVBI dan SuVBI akan digunakan oleh Bank Indonesia sebagai pengganti instrumen term-deposit valuta asing (TD Valas) non-overnight dan syariah. Tenor SVBI yang akan diterbitkan diantaranya terdiri atas tenor 1, 3, 6, 9 dan 12 bulan. Sementara itu, tenor SuVBI yang akan diterbitkan terdiri atas tenor 1, 3, dan 6 bulan. Dalam lelang TD Valas terkini (15/11), BI merilis tenor 3 bulan dengan volume USD 25mn dan tingkat suku bunga diskonto 5.58%. Sementara itu, BI merilis tenor 1 bulan dengan volume USD 40mn dan tingkat bunga 5.38% serta 3 bulan dengan volume USD 25mn dan tingkat bunga 5.58% untuk TD Valas Syariah. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: BSP mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada 6.5%. Keputusan Bank Sentral Filipina (BSP) untuk tidak menaikkan suku bunga tidaklah mengejutkan karena BSP telah terlebih dahulu menaikkan suku bunga di luar jadwal rapat dewan moneter pada tanggal (26/10). Selain itu, inflasi Filipina telah turun tajam di bulan Oktober menjadi 4.9% yoy (Sep: 6.1% yoy; Cons: 5.6% yoy), yang membuat BSP percaya diri untuk menurunkan proyeksi inflasi 2024 dan 2025 menjadi 4.4% dan 3.4% (Prev: 4.7% & 3.5%). (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Rasio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB turun di 3Q23 menjadi 28.9% (2Q23: 28.9%). Penurunan ini disebabkan turunnya utang luar negeri pemerintah menjadi USD 197.7bn (2Q23: USD 201.8bn). Namun, utang luar negeri swasta naik menjadi USD 196bn (2Q23: USD 194.6bn). Rasio utang luar negeri jangka pendek terhadap PDB naik menjadi 4.8% (2Q23: 4.6%) akibat kenaikan utang luar negeri jangka pendek pemerintah maupun swasta menjadi USD 15.2 dan 50.2bn (2Q23: USD 12.9 & 49.9bn). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 November 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 November 2023 (Eng)

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