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Daily Report

01 December 2023

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Presiden NY Fed Williams bantah dovish pivot Waller

Presiden NY Fed Williams bantah dovish pivot Waller

Pasar dikejutkan dengan sanggahan yang diberikan oleh Presiden Federal Reserve New York John Williams terhadap kemungkinan dovish pivot Gubernur Christopher Waller. Akibatnya, yield 10Y UST naik 7 bps menjadi 4.33%, yang diikuti penurunan indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market -0.3% maupun EMBI untuk emerging market -0.1%. Indeks dolar juga menguat 0.7% menjadi 103.5. Sanggahan Williams dapat memicu aksi jual di pasar SBN hari ini. Sebelumnya, efek bullish dovish pivot Waller tidak terlalu signifikan bagi pergerakan instrumen INDOGB karena di waktu yang sama Bank Indonesia menyatakan akan menahan suku bunga di level 6% di 2024, meskipun Indonesia menghadapi potensi melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan menjadi -0.1 hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB (2023: surplus 0.4% hingga defisit -0.4%). Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan melemah menuju rentang 6.65-6.75% hari ini. Rupiah yang sebelumnya terdepresiasi 0.7% menjadi IDR 15,510 per USD akibat pernyataan BI akan kembali melemah menuju rentang IDR 15,550-15,650 per USD karena perubahan sentimen di pasar global.

Fixed Income News: BI peroleh dana valuta asing senilai USD 392.6mn dari lelang SVBI dan SuVBI. Lelang tersebut dilaksanakan sebanyak 3 kali dengan besaran permintaan tiap-tiap lelang (21/11: USD 266.5mn; 28/11: USD 100.1mn; 29/11: USD 64mn) dan penerbitan suplai baru masing-masing (21/11: USD 236.5mn; 28/11: USD 92.1mn; 29/11: USD 64mn). Sementara itu, suku bunga diskonto 1M SVBI dan SuVBI naik 17 bps selama periode lelang dengan besaran masing-masing (21/11: 5.45%; 28/11 & 29/11: 5.62%). (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Inflasi PCE AS turun sesuai konsensus menjadi 3% yoy pada bulan October (Sep: 3.4% yoy; Cons: 3% yoy). Hal yang sama terjadi inflasi inti PCE yang turun menjadi 3.5% yoy (Sep: 3.7% yoy; Cons: 3.5% yoy). Penurunan inflasi tersebut memperkuat probabilit suku bunga acuan The Fed bertahan di 5.5% pada bulan Desember. (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: BI ungkap target-target ekonomi hingga 2025 pada pertemuan tahunan (29/11). Dalam pertemuan tersebut Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo menyatakan akan menahan suku bunga BI 7DRRR di 6%. Selain itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan melambat menjadi 2.8% pada 2024 dan pulih menjadi 3% pada 2025. Akibatnya, pertumbuhan PDB nasional akan lebih baik pada 2025 (4.8-5.6%) dibandingkan 2024 (4.7-5.5%). Inflasi diperkirakan akan stabil dalam rentang 1±2.5% selama 2 tahun ke depan. Defisit neraca berjalan akan melebar menjadi -0.1% hingga -0.9% terhadap PDB di 2024, lalu melebar kembali di 2025 menjadi -0.5% hingga -1.3%. Pertumbuhan kredit bank akan meningkat seiring pemangkasan suku bunga menjadi 10-12% di 2024 dan 11-13% di 2025. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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