Research & Stock Picks

Emiten Report

05 September 2023

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BUY (Maintain), TP at 1,800 – Good Prospects, But Stay Cautious

Kinerja 2Q23: Tekanan dari ASP dan biaya provisi sengketa pajak. PGAS membukukan pendapatan sebesar USD 850 juta di 2Q23 (-6% yoy, -9% qoq); Penurunan pendapatan ini terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan niaga gas, baik dengan pihak ketiga (USD 383 juta; -12% yoy, -12% qoq) maupun pihak terafiliasi (USD 206 juta, +20% yoy, -5% qoq). Meskipun ada peningkatan volume distribusi menjadi 918 BBTUD (vs. 880 BBTUD di 1Q23; 865 BBTUD di 2Q22), ASP perseroan turun menjadi USD 7.1/mmbtu (vs USD 7.8/mmbtu di 1Q23; USD 7.6/mmbtu di 2Q22). Namun, perlu dicatat bahwa PGAS berhasil memangkas biaya operasionalnya di 2Q23. EBITDA perusahaan tercatat sebesar USD 200 juta (-35% yoy, +3% qoq), dengan margin EBITDA sebesar 23.5% (-1,067 bps yoy, 280 bps qoq). Namun biaya provisi sengketa pajak sebesar USD 29.8 juta menekan laba PGAS, yang turun menjadi USD 59 juta di 2Q23 (-50% yoy, -31% qoq; NPM: 7%). Secara kumulatif, PGAS membukukan pendapatan sebesar USD 1.78 miliar di 1H23 (+2% yoy) dengan laba bersih sebesar USD 145 juta (-39% yoy); keduanya sejalan dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus (49%).

Site Visit Notes: Batam. Hingga akhir Juni 2023, PGAS Batam telah menyalurkan gas sebanyak 90.62 BBTUD. Melihat potensi peningkatan permintaan dari wilayah sekitar, angka distribusi gas dari Batam diproyeksikan mencapai 112.82 BBTUD pada akhir tahun 2023 (+24.5% dari angka Juni 2023); pendistribusian dari Batam didukung oleh jaringan pipa gas komprehensif yang membentang sepanjang 273.46 km, yang memasok gas ke enam kawasan industri.

Kontribusi positif dari Batam, meski margin berpotensi turun. Kami memproyeksikan PGAS dapat membukukan pendapatan sebesar USD 3.8 miliar (+5% yoy) pada tahun 2024, 7% di antaranya berasal dari Batam, dengan laba bersih sebesar USD 276 juta. Kami yakin PGAS dapat mencapai angka proyeksi kami, mengingat potensi lonjakan permintaan LNG dan LPG ke Batam. Meskipun ada sejumlah risiko tahun depan, termasuk dari blok Corridor MEDC, yang memasok sekitar 50% dari volume gas PGAS (berdasarkan PJBG terbaru, MEDC akan menaikkan harga gas dari Blok Corridor mulai tahun depan). Kami memproyeksikan kenaikan harga yang ditetapkan dalam PJBG baru akan mencapai sekitar 10%, yang mendorong kami menurunkan proyeksi pendapatan PGAS di 2024 sebesar 11%, menyusul keputusan Kementerian ESDM yang menolak skema harga baru non-HGBT yang diusulkan oleh PGAS.

BUY TP IDR 1,800. Kami mempertahankan rating BUY untuk PGAS, meskipun dengan TP yang lebih rendah menjadi IDR 1,800 (berbasis SOTP), yang menyiratkan EV/EBITDA FY24F sebesar 3.9x. Kami juga merevisi proyeksi EBITDA dan laba bersih PGAS untuk FY24F menjadi USD 1 miliar dan USD 264 juta, mengingat potensi kenaikan biaya gas akibat PJBG yang baru. Risiko utama: penurunan harga minyak dan gas, kenaikan biaya produksi dan biaya tunai.

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