Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

16 November 2023

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Performa neraca dagang Oktober lebih baik dari ekspektasi

  • Surplus neraca perdagangan naik tipis di bulan Oktober menjadi USD 3.48bn yang berlawanan dengan konsensus (Sep: USD 3.4bn; Cons: USD 3bn).
  • Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh performa ekspor dan impor yang lebih baik dari konsensus pasar di tengah penurunan harga komoditas dan perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi.
  • Surplus tersebut sejalan dengan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan FY23 kami (-0.4% terhadap PDB) dan bahkan berpeluang lebih rendah lagi bila performa perdagangan dapat tetap bertahan hingga akhir tahun.
  • Secara fundamental, potensi defisit neraca berjalan FY23 yang lebih rendah dapat berdampak positif bagi stabilitas Rupiah yang dalam 2 minggu terakhir mulai stabil akibat meredanya capital outflow.

Surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia meningkat di bulan Oktober menjadi USD 3.48bn yang melebihi konsensus maupun proyeksi kami (Sep: USD 3.4bn; Cons: USD 3bn; SSI: USD 2.5bn). Peningkatan tersebut juga disertai performa ekspor dan impor yang lebih baik daripada ekspektasi pasar dan proyeksi kami. Kontraksi ekspor turun menjadi -10.43% yoy (Sep: -16.23% yoy; Cons: -16.48% yoy; SSI: -22.2% yoy), walaupun indeks harga komoditas kami terkontraksi lebih dalam daripada bulan sebelumnya sebesar -44.6% yoy (Sep: -40.7% yoy) [lihat Figur 1]. Dengan kata lain, terjadi peningkatan volume ekspor komoditas utama di tengah berlanjutnya penurunan harga global (lihat Figur 2).

Hal serupa juga dialami oleh sektor impor yang mengalami penurunan kontraksi menjadi -2.42% yoy (Sep: -12.45% yoy; Cons: -7.2% yoy; SSI: -12.6% yoy). Hal ini mengejutkan karena data PMI manufaktur menunjukkan perlambatan ekspansi dengan penurunan menjadi 51.5 (Sep: 52.3). Meskipun demikian, impor bahan baku terkontraksi lebih rendah menjadi -6.1% yoy (Sep: -14.8% yoy) dan impor barang modal berbalik mencatat pertumbuhan 11.1% yoy (Sep: -10% yoy).

Menurut kami, kenaikan surplus neraca dagang Oktober berdampak positif terhadap peluang neraca berjalan untuk mencatat defisit yang lebih rendah daripada proyeksi FY23 kami saat ini (-0.4% terhadap PDB). Apabila Indonesia bisa mencatat surplus neraca dagang minimal senilai USD 8bn pada 4Q23, maka defisit neraca berjalan FY23 akan mencapai USD -3bn atau -0.3% terhadap PDB. Untuk mencapai posisi neraca berjalan FY23 break-even, maka surplus neraca dagang harus mencapai angka USD 12bn yang menurut kami cukup sulit untuk dicapai karena membutuhkan kenaikan harga komoditas atau volume ekspor hingga bulan Desember. Sedangkan, tren harga komoditas cenderung melemah akibat perlambatan ekonomi global (lihat Figur 3). Oleh sebab itu, kami tetap mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan FY23 di -0.4% terhadap PDB tetapi tidak menutup kemungkinan terhadap defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih rendah.

Potensi defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih rendah akan berdampak positif bagi stabilitas Rupiah. Dalam 2 minggu terakhir, Rupiah mengalami apresiasi dan tanda-tanda awal stabilisasi di rentang IDR 15,500-15,700 per USD. Stabilisasi tersebut utamanya disebabkan oleh mulai berakhirnya arus keluar modal asing (capital outflow) di pasar obligasi yang mulai terjadi sejak awal September (lihat Figur 4). Meskipun capital outflow masih belum berakhir di pasar saham, kami melihat potensi defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih rendah di 4Q23 sebagai salah satu faktor fundamental makro yang dapat menopang stabilitas Rupiah hingga akhir tahun.

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