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Daily Report

29 November 2023

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Penguatan Rupiah pacu optimisme investor domestik

Berlanjutnya penguatan Rupiah 0.4% menjadi IDR 15,435 per USD kemarin memicu optimisme investor domestik di pasar SBN dan IHSG yang sebelumnya diselimuti sentimen koreksi pada hari Senin (27/11) dan Jumat pekan lalu (24/11). IHSG naik 0.4% menjadi 7,041 kemarin (28/11), diikuti dengan penurunan yield INDOGB 10Y dan 5Y masing-masing -3 dan -2 bps menjadi 6.7% dan 67.1%. Yield INDON untuk seluruh tenor acuan juga mengalami penurunan, yakni 10Y (-5 bps menjadi 5.58%), 5Y (-5 bps menjadi 5.25%), dan 2Y (-2 bps menjadi 5.34%). Menurut kami, apresiasi Rupiah akan berlanjut hari ini menuju rentang IDR 15,350-15,450 per USD akibat pelemahan indeks dolar -0.4% menjadi 102.7. Hal ini akan berdampak positif atas IHSG dengan target psikologis 7,100. Sedangkan, pengaruh apresiasi Rupiah atas yield 10Y INDOGB akan lebih terbatas karena posisi yield saat ini yang tidak terlalu jauh dari batas bawah (floor) JIBOR 1M. Sehingga, pergerakan yield 10Y INDOGB kami perkirakan berkisar di rentang 6.65-6.75%.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan atas lelang SUN meningkat menjadi IDR 48.7tn (14/11: IDR 33.7tn). Walaupun terjadi kenaikan tajam dari sisi permintaan (44.5%), jumlah rilis SUN baru hanya naik tipis menjadi IDR 19.2tn (14/11: IDR 19tn) dengan alokasi terbesar untuk seri-seri baru yang diperkirakan akan menjadi seri acuan tahun depan, yakni FR0101 (IDR 11.6tn dengan yield 6.76%) dan FR0100 (IDR 3.4tn dengan yield 6.77%). Kami melihat tingginya tingkat yield pada lelang SUN sebagai pendorong kenaikan yield generik INDOGB 10Y dan 5Y ke rentang 6.7-6.8% (Prev: 6.6-6.7%). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Indeks kepercayaan konsumen conference board AS meningkat di bulan November menjadi 102 (Sep: 99.1; Cons: 101). Kenaikan ini menunjukkan daya beli konsumen Amerika Serikat yang tinggi, meskipun tanda-tanda perlambatan ekonomi semakin jelas. Menurut kami, tingginya daya beli konsumen AS akan menjadi katalis positif bagi perekonomian AS untuk mencapai soft landing di 1H24. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan bertahan di 8.7% yoy pada bulan Oktober (Sep: 8.7% yoy). Kokohnya pertumbuhan kredit perbankan disebabkan oleh kenaikan pertumbuhan kredit konsumsi menjadi 9.1% yoy (Sep: 8.4% yoy). Sementara itu, kebijakan makroprudensial Bank Indonesia menahan perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit di kategori modal kerja yang tumbuh 8% yoy dan investasi yang tumbuh 9.4% yoy (Sep: 8.3% yoy & 9.8% yoy). Kami memprediksi BI akan berhasil mencapai target pertumbuhan kredit perbankan tahun ini di rentang 9-11%. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 November 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 November 2023 (Ind)

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