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Daily Report

01 August 2023

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Pasar obligasi domestik rebound tipis dari efek BOJ

Pasar obligasi domestik mencatat rebound terbatas kemarin (31/7) seiring dengan keputusan bank sentral Jepang (BOJ) untuk melakukan intervensi pembelian 10Y JGB. Akibat intervensi BOJ, yield JGB 10Y hanya naik 4 bps menjadi 0.61%. Rebound yield INDOGB terkonsentrasi untuk tenor 10Y yang turun sebesar -4 bps menjadi 6.25%. Sedangkan, rebound pada instrumen INDON hanya terjadi untuk tenor 2Y yang yieldnya turun -2 bps menjadi 5.29%. Sementara itu, pergerakan nilai tukar di Asia cenderung stabil. Walaupun Yen Jepang melemah 0.8% menjadi JPY 142.3 per USD, Rupiah menguat tipis 0.1% menjadi IDR 15,080 per USD. Kami melihat hal ini sebagai perkembangan positif. Akan tetapi, kami merekomendasikan investor untuk menjaga sikap waspada menghadapi perkembangan ini. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y dan Rupiah akan bergerak stabil di rentang masing-masing 6.2-6.3% dan IDR 15,000-15,100 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SBSN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 6tn. Lelang SBSN hari ini dibayang-bayangi penurunan permintaan atas obligasi di pasar primer seperti yang terjadi pada lelang SUN minggu lalu (25/7) serta SBSN dua minggu lalu (18/7) masing-masing menjadi IDR 31tn (11/7: IDR 47.8tn) dan IDR 24.3tn (4/7: IDR 34tn). Kami memperkirakan jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang SBSN hari ini mencapai IDR 23-28tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Aktivitas manufaktur Tiongkok masih mengalami kontraksi pada bulan Juli, yang diikuti laju ekspansi sektor jasa yang semakin menurun. Hal ini terlihat dari indeks PMI manufaktur resmi pemerintah Tiongkok yang bertahan di zona kontraksi sebesar 49.3 (Jun: 49; Cons: 49.2). Sementara itu, indeks PMI non manufaktur pemerintah Tiongkok turun lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar menjadi 51.5 (Jun: 53.2; Cons: 52.9). Hal ini mengindikasikan pelemahan ekonomi Tiongkok berpotensi berlanjut hingga 3Q23. Kami memperkirakan bank sentral Tiongkok (PBOC) akan kembali menurunkan suku bunga pada kuartal ini untuk mencegah pelemahan lebih lanjut. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan tetapkan 20 komoditas ekspor objek kebijakan DHE. Keputusan tersebut dituangkan dalam Keputusan Menteri Keuangan No. 272 Tahun 2022. 20 komoditas tersebut terdiri atas batu bara, ferro nikel, tembaga, minyak mentah dan yang sudah dimurnikan, gas alam dan cair, karet alam, minyak kelapa sawit, timah dan baja tahan karat. Menurut estimasi kami, menunjukkan kebijakan ini mencakup 51.3% dari total ekspor Indonesia selama Januari-Mei 2023. Apabila total ekspor tahun ini mencapai USD 250bn, maka akan ada potensi tambahan cadangan devisa dari kebijakan DHE senilai USD 18.7 bn hingga akhir tahun. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 1 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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