Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

25 May 2023

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Pasar global terpukul pidato Fed Waller

Pidato anggota dewan gubernur Fed Christopher Waller yang membuka peluang kenaikan suku bunga puncak (terminal) menjadi 5.5% (lihat global economic news) memicu aksi jual di pasar saham dan obligasi global. Indeks-indeks saham AS turun lebih dari -0.5% tadi malam (24/5). Sementara itu, indeks-indeks saham di Eropa jatuh hampir -2%. Koreksi di pasar obligasi global terpusat di Amerika Serikat yang terlihat dari naiknya imbal hasil (yield) UST 10-tahun sebesar 5 bps menjadi 3.74%. Sedangkan, pasar obligasi Indonesia masih melanjutkan konsolidasi dengan bullish rally terbatas di instrumen tenor pendek (2-tahun) yang turun 3 bps menjadi 5.84%. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan terkonsolidasi flat dalam rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan akan terdepresiasi menuju rentang IDR 14,900-15,000 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Bank Mandiri tawarkan obligasi hijau senilai IDR 5tn. Obligasi yang ditawarkan merupakan bagian dari Obligasi Berwawasan Lingkungan Berkelanjutan I yang menargetkan total pendanaan sebesar IDR 10tn. Obligasi ini akan ditawarkan secara resmi pada tanggal 20-22 Juni dan dibagi menjadi tiga seri, yakni Seri A dengan kupon 5.5-6% per tahun dan tenor 370 hari, Seri B dengan kupon 5.75-6.5% per tahun dengan tenor 3 tahun, dan Seri C dengan kupon 5.95-6.95% dengan tenor 5 tahun.. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Gubernur Waller buka peluang kenaikan suku bunga puncak the Fed menjadi 5.5% pada bulan Juli. Kemungkinan tersebut dicetuskan oleh anggota Dewan Gubernur Fed Christopher Waller dalam pidatonya yang berjudul “Hike, Skip, or Pause”. Merespon pernyataan Waller, pelaku pasar memperkirakan the Fed masih akan menahan suku bunga di 5.25% pada bulan Juni dan kembali menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan Juli sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5%. Walaupun ekspektasi pasar sudah semakin sejalan dengan pandangan para pejabat Federal Reserve, pasar masih menyimpan asa atas terjadinya Fed Pivot di 2H23 sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5%, yang menurut probabilita subjektif kami di bawah 10% (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: Pembiayaan perbankan terindikasi melambat di bulan April. Kondisi ini tercermin dari rilis survei permintaan dan penawaran pembiayaan perbankan Bank Indonesia. Menurut survei, saldo bersih tertimbang penyaluran kredit baru menurun signifikan dari 94.6% menjadi 68.9%. Akan tetapi, penyaluran kredit baru diperkirakan akan kembali naik di bulan Mei dengan saldo bersih tertimbang 88.3%. Permintaan atas kredit perbankan juga melambat yang tercermin dari penurunan saldo bersih tertimbang menjadi 19.8% dari 24% di bulan sebelumnya. Menurut kami, penurunan ini disebabkan oleh efek musiman libur Lebaran yang mengurangi jumlah hari efektif kerja. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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