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Company Reports

20 January 2025

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Nickel Weekly (13 – 17 January 2025): Avg. USD 15,659/ton (+3.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past 2 consecutive weeks nickel prices had moved up strongly, averaging in the past five trading days USD 15,659/ton (+3.1% WoW), fuelled by Indonesia’s government signal to cut 2025 nickel production quota to 150 Mt (-44.9% YoY; 2024: 272 Mt), potentially reducing global supply by more than a third.
  • Furthermore, DXY index eased slightly to 109 from its peak of 110, improving affordability for buyers and boosting market sentiment for nickel. Additionally, ongoing decline in China’s nickel inventory, now standing at 8,276 Mt (-1.4% WoW), reflects rapid destocking and stronger demand expectations ahead of Chinese New Year festivities.
  • However, we maintain our FY25 forecast at USD 15,000 (YTD: USD 15,336/ton) amid global uncertainties and volatile supply-demand dynamics. Stock-wise, we retain NCKL as our top pick, on anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs, with TP of IDR 850 (FY25 P/E: 7.3x).

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