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Company Reports

17 February 2025

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Nickel Weekly (10 – 14 February 2025): Avg. USD 15,247/ton (+0.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices remained relatively stable at USD 15,247/ton (+0.2% WoW). Despite slight recovery, nickel market stayed weak, with sluggish downstream transactions and low purchasing enthusiasm.
  • China’s port nickel ore inventory continued its downtrend (-1.2 Mwmt WoW to 79.66 Mwmt) as weaker shipments from Indonesia and supply constraints persisted. However, heavy rainfall in Sulawesi disrupted mining and transportation, while the Philippines’ proposed five-year nickel export ban added further uncertainties. These factors prompted buyers to accelerate restocking efforts ahead of potential policy changes.
  • Amid conflicting signals and potential slower demand from EV (9M24 BYD’s market share: 31.3%, the biggest and yet do not use nickel-based batteries), we retain FY25 price forecast at USD 15,000/ton (YTD: USD 15,333/ton). Stock-wise, NCKL remains the top pick (TP: IDR 850; FY25 P/E: 7.3x), supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs.

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