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Daily Report

02 May 2023

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Konsolidasi taktis di tingkat global jelang pengumuman kenaikan suku bunga Fed

Pasar global tengah melakukan konsolidasi menghadapi potensi sinyal dovish dari the Fed pada pertemuan FOMC hari Rabu mendatang (3/5). Pasar memperkirakan the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga yang terakhir pada bulan ini untuk menjaga momentum penurunan inflasi yang sudah semakin membebani sektor perbankan Amerika Serikat (lihat global econ news). Sementara itu, para pelaku pasar dalam negeri tengah menunggu rilis data inflasi bulan April (Cons: 4.3% yoy atau 0.5% mom; Core: 2.9% yoy). Kami berpandangan konsensus inflasi April teralu optimis dan memprediksi inflasi di 0.7% mom atau 4.7% yoy, lebih tinggi dari konsensus. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan melanjutkan konsolidasi hari ini di rentang 6.55-6.65% yang juga diikuti dengan konsolidasi Rupiah dalam rentang IDR 14,700-14,800 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Total emisi obligasi dan sukuk 2023 naik 7tn di bulan April menjadi IDR 34.5tn. Akan tetapi, nilai total berjalan (outstanding) obligasi dan suku korporasi turun sebesar IDR -4.7tn menjadi IDR 446.7tn dan USD 47.5mn. Sedangkan nilai outstanding SUN naik IDR 68.8tn menjadi IDR 5,537.6tn dan USD 486.1mn. (IDX)

Global Economic News: Pasar prediksi the Fed akan melakukan dovish hike karena inflasi yang masih kuat dan likuidasi Bank First Republic. 93% pelaku pasar memperkirakan suku bunga acuan the Fed naik 25 bps menjadi 5.25% Rabu mendatang karena dua faktor. Yang pertama adalah tingginya resiliensi inflasi Amerika Serikat pada bulan Maret yang terlihat dari bertahannya inflasi inti PCE di level 4.6% (Feb: & Cons: 4.6%) serta penurunan inflasi PCE umum yang tidak terpaut jauh dari consensus menjadi 4.2% yoy (Feb: 5% yoy & Cons: 4.1% yoy). Yang kedua adalah tertekannya sistem perbankan AS alkibat suku bunga tinggi yang tercermin dari likuidasi Bank First Republic. Menurut pandangan kami, kenaikan suku bunga acuan bulan Mei akan menjadi yang terakhir karena para pejabat the Fed berusaha mengantisipasi dampak negatif kebijakan suku bunga tinggi terhadap sektor keuangan AS. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: APB3I minta pemerintah relaksasi kebijakan larangan ekspor tembaga, bauksit, dan timah. Permintaan ini disampaikan oleh Sekretari Jendral Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia (APB3I) Ronald Sulistianto. Tindakan ini diambil oleh para pengusaha karena keputusan pemerintah yang memberikan kelonggaran kepada PT Freeport Indonesia dan PT Amman Mineral hingga Mei 2024. Menurut kami, kebijakan mineral pemerintah yang inkonsisten berpotensi berdampak negatif bagi komitmen para pengusaha terhadap investasi smelter. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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