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Emiten Report

08 September 2023

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KLBF – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 2,400 – Embracing Growth Opportunities

Proyeksi pertumbuhan penjualan FY23F

Angka penjualan mayoritas segmen bisnis KLBF diproyeksikan akan terus bertumbuh hingga akhir tahun, dan turut mendorong kinerja konsolidasinya di FY23F (proyeksi pertumbuhan pendapatan: +8.2% YoY). Kami memperkirakan pertumbuhan penjualan tertinggi akan dicatatkan oleh segmen obat resep (proyeksi FY23F: +24.8% YoY), terutama setelah akuisisi Sanofi Indonesia yang akan turut meningkatkan kontribusi segmen tersebut (FY23F: 24.5% penjualan KLBF, FY22: 21.3%). Hanya segmen consumer health yang penjualannya diperkirakan turun, akibat melemahnya permintaan vitamin dan suplemen. di tengah pelemahan daya beli masyarakat akibat inflasi (di 1H23, penjualan segmen consumer health turun -4.2% YoY). Mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor tersebut, serta guidance pertumbuhan penjualan FY23F terbaru dari perusahaan (8-10%), kami memperkirakan KLBF akan mencetak pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar high-single digit (+8.2% YoY) di FY23F.

 

Laba bersih FY24F: Potensi pertumbuhan dua digit

Walaupun GPM KLBF di tahun ini diperkirakan turun (FY23F: 40.1%, FY22: 40.5%) akibat kenaikan harga bahan baku obat dan perubahan product mix, kami meyakini angkanya akan kembali naik di FY24F (proyeksi SSI: 41.0%), didorong oleh dampak penurunan harga skim milk powder (yang sudah mulai  turun sejak Apr-22, namun dampaknya cenderung lagging akibat inventory days yang panjang [> 1 tahun], dan kemungkinan baru akan terlihat di FY24F) dan potensi implementasi RUU Kesehatan, yang mempermudah izin praktek dokter sehingga dapat meningkatkan volume penjualan obat licensed & branded generics yang memiliki GPM lebih tinggi. Terkait laba bersih, walaupun angka full-yearnya diproyeksikan cenderung flat di FY23F (+0.5% YoY) akibat (1) provisi inventory terkait Covid-19 (1H23: IDR 50.6 miliar), serta (2) rugi kurs  (1H23: IDR 60.6 miliar), kami meyakini KLBF dapat mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih hingga dua digit tahun depan (proyeksi: +15.0% YoY) seiring dengan selesainya pencatatan provisi dan stabilisasi kurs.

 

BUY, TP IDR 2,100 (25.2x PE FY24F)

Dengan mempertimbangkan potensi yang telah kami jabarkan di atas, serta neraca keuangannya yang sehat (net cash) kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY untuk KLBF dengan TP yang kami turunkan menjadi IDR 2,100 (dari IDR 2,400), sejalan dengan revisi proyeksi laba bersih FY23F/ FY24F KLBF menjadi IDR 3.4 triliun/ IDR 3.9 triliun (turun -12.4%/ -9.8% dari proyeksi sebelumya) serta perubahan guidance pertumbuhan laba bersih FY23F KLBF yang turun menjadi 0-1% dari sebelumnya 13-15%. Angka TP tersebut merefleksikan 25.2x PE FY24F, yaitu berada di -0.5 SD rata-rata PE 5 tahun terakhir.

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