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Daily Report

09 June 2023

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Investor global sambut resesi ekonomi di zona Euro

Pasar obligasi global bereaksi positif terhadap revisi data pertumbuhan PDB zona Euro yang menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian kawasan tersebut telah mengalami resesi ekonomi pada 1Q23 (lihat global economic news). Indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju naik 0.2%, yang diikuti penurunan imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10Y sebesar masing-masing 8 dan 5 bps menjadi 3.72% dan 2.4% tadi malam (8/6). Menurut kami, sentimen positif ini dapat dimanfaatkan sebagai momentum take profit sebagian untuk INDOGB, seperti rekomendasi kami kemarin, di tengah kuatnya tekanan jual terhadap bullish steepening pasar obligasi domestik (lihat Chart 2) dan bentuk kurva yield yang semakin inverted di pasar obligasi Amerika Serikat (lihat Chart 3). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan tertekan di rentang 6.35-6.45% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah berpotensi terapresiasi menuju rentang IDR 14,750-14,850 per USD karena pelemahan indeks dolar tadi malam sebesar -0.7%.

Fixed Income News: Pefindo sematkan peringkat “idA+(sy)” kepada Sukuk Ijarah II MORA dengan total nilai IDR 3tn. Sukuk Ijarah PT Mora Telematikan Indonesia (MORA) akan mulai diterbitkan tahun ini dengan pendanaan Fase I senilai IDR 700bn. Menurut prospektus, 36% dari dana yang diperoleh akan digunakan untuk refinancing, 57% untuk investasi di bidang data center, dan 7% untuk modal kerja. Sukuk Ijarah II Fase I MORA akan dibagi menjadi 2 seri dengan tenor masing-masing 3 tahun untuk Seri A dan 5 tahun untuk Seri B. Pefindo menyatakan peringkat MORA berpotensi dinaikkan bila perusahaan meningkatkan struktur permodalannya dan berhasil meningkatkan arus kas dari ekspansi bisnis melebihi proyeksi. Bila EBITDA perusahaan jauh lebih rendah dari target yang diumumkan, maka Pefindo akan menurunkan peringkat MORA. (Pefindo)

Global Economic News: Zona Euro alami resesi pada 1Q23. Berdasarkan revisi yang dirilis oleh Eurostat, PDB zona Euro mengalami kontraksi sebesar -0.1% qoq (Prev: 0.1% qoq) di 1Q23. Sehingga, zona Euro mengalami kontraksi PDB selama dua kuartal berturut-turut masing-masing -0.2% qoq dan -0.1% qoq. Menurut kami, revisi ini merupakan berita positif untuk pasar global karena meningkatkan probabilita dihentikannya siklus kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) mulai bulan Juli. (Guardian)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah dan DPR sepakati target rentang pertumbuhan PDB 2024 di 5.1-5.7%. Sebelumnya, Kementerian Keuangan mengusulkan asumsi rentang pertumbuhan PDB 2024 di 5.3-5.7%. Asumsi ini lebih optimis dari estimasi pertumbuhan PDB 2024 Bank Indonesia sebesar 4.7-5.5%. Menurut kami, tingkat pertumbuhan PDB di atas 5% dapat tercapai bila Federal Reserve melakukan pemangkasan suku bunga agresif tahun depan di kisaran 200 bps. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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