Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

18 April 2023

By

INDOGB lebih resilien dari INDON

Sesuai dugaan kami, para investor global melakukan penyesuaian portofolio untuk mengantisipasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed di bulan Mei. Hal ini menyebabkan aksi jual di pasar UST yang tercermin dari kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) UST 10-tahun sebesar 9 bps menjadi 3.6%. Tindakan ini berdampak pada aksi konsolidasi di pasar obligasi Indonesia, terutama pasar INDON yang yield 10-tahunnya juga naik 8 bps menjadi 4.67%. Sedangkan, konsolidasi di pasar INDOGB lebih stabil, menunjukkan preferensi investor terhadap obligasi berdenominasi Rupiah dibandingkan yang berdenominasi USD. Berdasrkan hal ini, kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan bergerak stabil dalam rentang 6.6-6.7%. Sedangkan, Rupiah berpotensi untuk melanjutkan pelemahan ke rentang IDR 14,800-14,900 hari ini karena penguatan indeks dolar sebesar 0.5% menjadi 102.1 semalam.

Fixed Income News: Sektor perbankan berencana terbitkan obligasi baru lagi. Rencana ini diutarakan oleh sejumlah bank-bank pemerintah dan swasta. Bank BJB misalnya akan menerbitkan obligasi baru pada 2H23 dengan nominal IDR 1-2tn. Bank BTN juga berencana menerbitkan obligasi ketiga tahun ini di 3Q23 dengan nominal IDR 1tn. Bank CIMB Niaga juga memiliki rencana untuk menerbitkan sukuk mudharabah baru tanpa menyebutkan rencana nilai nominalnya. Antusiasme yang tinggi dari sektor perbankan disebabkan oleh kebutuhan pendanaan yang tinggi untuk memenuhi permintaan kredit perbankan yang pertumbuhannya mencapai dua digit. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: Presiden ECB khawatir terhadap dampak fragmentasi ekonomi global terhadap inflasi. Dalam pidatonya semalam, Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) Christine Lagarde menekankan potensi resiliensi inflasi di level global akibat dari panasnya hubungan geopolitik dunia yang diwarnai rivalitas antara Amerika Serikat dengan Rusia dan Tiongkok. Menurut Lagarde, rivalitas tersebut dapat menghambat rantai suplai global dan mengurangi aktivitas perdagangan internasional. Sehingga, inflasi global berpotensi lebih tinggi di masa mendatang daripada periode sebelumnya. Kami setuju dengan prediksi ini. Tanpa kondisi politik global yang kondusif, upaya membendung inflasi terutama di negara-negara maju akan lebih penuh tantangan. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: APBN Maret 2023 masih surplus IDR 128.5tn. Surplus tersebut setara dengan 0.61% terhadap PDB. Sementara itu, keseimbangan primer tercatat surplus sebesar IDR 228.8tn. Penerimaan pajak mencapai IDR 504.5 tn atau 78% dari penerimaan negara yang nilainya mencapai IDR 647.2tn. Pengeluaran pemerintah pusat mencapai IDR 347.3 tn atau 67% dari total belanja negara yang nilainya mencapai IDR 518.7tn. Menurut kami, kondisi APBN ini memungkinkan pemerintah untuk terus membatasi penerbitan SUN baru di masa mendatang. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 April 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 April 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Report

Sep 25, 2023

Rilis data PMI AS indikasikan perlambatan ekonomi menuju resesi

Daily Report

Sep 25, 2023

Samuel’s Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly 2023-09-25

Daily Report

Sep 25, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Emiten Report

Sep 22, 2023

ERAA: BUY (from HOLD) – TP IDR 550 – Year of Aggresive Expansion

Daily Report

Sep 22, 2023

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income 22 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 22, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 22 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 21, 2023

Kami memproyeksikan pemangkasan 7DRRR dan pergerakan yield 10Y SUN yang lebih landai di 2024

Daily Report

Sep 21, 2023

Sinyal hawkish The Fed tekan pasar global

Daily Report

Sep 21, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Emiten Report

Sep 20, 2023

BREN: Indonesia’s Most Powerful Geothermal Player

Economic & Fixed Income

Sep 20, 2023

Signals for an SBN market reversal

Daily Report

Sep 20, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Sep 19, 2023

JCI Might Move Sideways Today (19/09)

Emiten Report

Sep 18, 2023

BRPT: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,590 – Unlocking the Value of Renewables

Emiten Report

Sep 18, 2023

Cement Sector – Neutral – 8M23 Cement Sales

Emiten Report

Sep 18, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight: 8M23 Auto Sales

Daily Report

Sep 18, 2023

Pasar SBN tertekan shifting ke SRBI serta kekhawatiran atas kenaikan harga minyak global

Emiten Report

Sep 18, 2023

NCKL: BUY (Maintain) – TP at IDR 1,500 – Higher Output, Lower Cost

Daily Report

Sep 18, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Sep 16, 2023

Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-16

Daily Report

Sep 15, 2023

Surplus neraca dagang Agustus naik, menurunkan risiko defisit neraca berjalan rolling sum 12M 3Q23

Emiten Report

Sep 15, 2023

STAA: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,050 – More Expansion Ahead

Economic & Fixed Income

Sep 15, 2023

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report 15 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 15, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 15 September 2023

Emiten Report

Sep 14, 2023

AVIA: BUY (From HOLD), TP at IDR 730 – Colorful Prospect

Daily Report

Sep 14, 2023

Pasar masih yakin disinflasi AS on track untuk saat ini

Daily Report

Sep 14, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Emiten Report

Sep 13, 2023

MEDC: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Investments Bearing Giant Fruit

Daily Report

Sep 13, 2023

Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

Daily Report

Sep 13, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Pelemahan

Emiten Report

Sep 12, 2023

TLKM: BUY (Maintain), TP at 4,500 – Telkom Investor Day 2023 Notes

Daily Report

Sep 12, 2023

JCI Might Move Up Today (12/9)

Emiten Report

Sep 11, 2023

AMMN – HOLD (Initiation) – TP IDR 5,500 – Close to Its Full Potential

Daily Report

Sep 11, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Emiten Report

Sep 11, 2023

HOLD (from BUY), TP at 50 – Hitting the Rock Bottom

Daily Report

Sep 11, 2023

Waspadai volatilitas pasar jelang rilis data inflasi CPI AS hari Rabu (13/9) dan akibat depresiasi CNY

Daily Report

Sep 11, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Sep 8, 2023

SRBI dan financial deepening pasar SPN dan SPNS (Indonesia government bills)

Emiten Report

Sep 8, 2023

KLBF – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 2,400 – Embracing Growth Opportunities

Economic & Fixed Income

Sep 8, 2023

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report 8 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 8, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 8 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 7, 2023

Pertahankan overweight INDOGB 2Y di tengah tantangan reakselerasi inflasi

Daily Report

Sep 7, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Pelemahan

Daily Report

Sep 6, 2023

Reakselerasi inflasi akibat naiknya harga minyak?

Daily Report

Sep 6, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Pelemahan

Emiten Report

Sep 5, 2023

BUY (Maintain), TP at 1,800 – Good Prospects, But Stay Cautious

Emiten Report

Sep 5, 2023

Telco Sector – Overweight – 8M23 Monthly Data Package Update

Daily Report

Sep 5, 2023

JCI Might Sideways Today (05/9)

Daily Report

Sep 4, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Emiten Report

Sep 4, 2023

Banking Sector – Overweight – 7M23 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Sep 4, 2023

Sentimen risk-off masih mendominasi pasar global

Daily Report

Sep 4, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Report

Sep 1, 2023

Inflasi inti Agustus melambat, tetapi BI belum tentu akan memangkas suku bunga lebih awal

Economic & Fixed Income

Sep 1, 2023

Samuel Economic & Fixed Income Report 1 September 2023

Daily Report

Sep 1, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 1 September 2023

Daily Report

Aug 31, 2023

Momentum speculative buy 2Y INDOGB

Daily Report

Aug 31, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Emiten Report

Aug 30, 2023

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 6,400 – Grow together with Kupedes

Economic & Fixed Income

Aug 30, 2023

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

Daily Report

Aug 30, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Report

Aug 29, 2023

Global market is quieter than expected (29/08)

Daily Report

Aug 29, 2023

JCI Might Move Up Today (28/8)

Daily Report

Aug 28, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Emiten Report

Aug 28, 2023

Strategy Report: Election overhang will fade away

Daily Report

Aug 28, 2023

Waspadai turbulensi global akibat nada hawkish Fed

Daily Report

Aug 28, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Aug 25, 2023

BI akan tinggalkan operation twist sebagai instrumen stabilisasi nilai tukar

Economic & Fixed Income

Aug 25, 2023

Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report 25 August 2023

Daily Report

Aug 25, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 25 August 2023

Emiten Report

Aug 24, 2023

BIRD: HOLD (Maintain), TP at IDR 2,200 – Minimal Impact from Royalty Fee

Emiten Report

Aug 24, 2023

BRMS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 250 – Robust Earnings Outlook Driven by Higher Volume

Daily Report

Aug 24, 2023

Obligasi global naik akibat kontraksi PMI Jasa Eropa

Daily Report

Aug 24, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Emiten Report

Aug 23, 2023

Headwinds All Around

Daily Report

Aug 23, 2023

Defisit neraca berjalan dan capital outflow bayang-bayangi 2Q23 dan 3Q23

Daily Report

Aug 23, 2023

Daily Macro and Fixed Income 23 Agustus 2023

Daily Report

Aug 23, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Emiten Report

Aug 22, 2023

MKPI – BUY (Initiation) – TP IDR 32,000 – Golden Mind Behind Pondok Indah

Daily Report

Aug 22, 2023

Support teknikal 10Y INDOGB di 6.6% diuji hari ini (22/08)

Daily Report

Aug 22, 2023

JCI Might Move Up Today (22/08)

Daily Report

Aug 21, 2023

Global macroeconomic pressure leads to INDOGB 10Y yield correction (21/08)

Daily Report

Aug 21, 2023

JCI Might Decline Today (21/08)

Economic & Fixed Income

Aug 18, 2023

Samuel Daily Macro and Fixed Income 18 August 2023

Daily Report

Aug 18, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 18 August 2023

Emiten Report

Aug 16, 2023

Trimmed Spending for Maximum Gain

Emiten Report

Aug 16, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight – 7M23 Auto Sales

Daily Report

Aug 16, 2023

Penurunan surplus neraca dagang Juli perkuat proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23

Economic & Fixed Income

Aug 16, 2023

Prahara Tiongkok, blessing in disguise bagi INDOGB

Daily Report

Aug 16, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Emiten Report

Aug 15, 2023

Cement Sector – Neutral – 7M23 Cement Sales

Daily Report

Aug 15, 2023

Obligasi emerging market tertekan gagal bayar obligasi sektor properti Tiongkok

Daily Report

Aug 15, 2023

JCI Might Move Sideways Today (14/08)

Daily Report

Aug 14, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Daily Report

Aug 14, 2023

US PPI inflation rebound raises some concerns

Daily Report

Aug 14, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Emiten Report

Aug 11, 2023

NSSS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 265 – Double Capacity, Double Performance

Economic & Fixed Income

Aug 11, 2023

Samuel Daily Macro & Fixed Income 11 August 2023

Daily Report

Aug 11, 2023

Samuel Daily Research 11 August 2023

Daily Report

Aug 10, 2023

Pasar obligasi domestik hadapi tekanan jual asing