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Emiten Report

02 May 2023

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SELL (Maintain), TP at IDR 950 – Still Many Challenges Ahead

Still Many Challenges Ahead

Volume tertekan. Pada 1Q23, penjualan rokok HMSP terpangkas -5.7% yoy menjadi 19.7 miliar batang. Meski ada penurunan volume penjualan, HMSP berhasil menaikkan pangsa pasarnya menjadi 28.5% (vs 28.3% di 1Q22) akibat turunnya volume penjualan keseluruhan industri rokok Indonesia sebesar -6.5% yoy. Lemahnya konsumsi rokok nasional ditenggarai oleh mulai naiknya harga rokok di 1Q23 oleh sejumlah produsen termasuk HMSP.

1Q23 Result. Revenue per sticks HMSP naik +9.0% yoy, yang membuat pendapatan 1Q23 HMSP masih naik +3.1% yoy, atau setara 22.9% target FY23F SSI dan 22.7% target FY23F consensus. EBITDA pun naik +9.0% yoy didukung oleh efisiensi yang dilakukan perusahaan yang salah satunya adalah berkurangnya cukai per batang -0.5% yoy menjadi IDR 838/batang di tengah penurunan volume yang membuat total beban cukai turun -6.3% yoy. Hal tersebut membuat 1Q23 EBITDA margin berada di level 10.7% (vs 10.1% di 1Q22).

FY23F Projection. Performa 1Q23 HMSP didukung keberhasilan menaikan revenue/sticks di tengah belum berlaku sepenuhnya penjualan cukai dengan tariff 2023 serta membaiknya daya beli masyarakat. Namun kami menilai pada 2Q23, dengan telah berlakunya tarif cukai yang baru, kami memperkirakan HMSP akan kesulitan untuk mempertahankan margin keuntungan di level saat ini tanpa kehilangan volume penjualan lebih banyak. Pemakaian pita cukai 2023 diperkirakan akan menambah ~10% beban cukai yang membuat EBITDA margin dan NPM FY23F diperkirakan akan berada di level di level 10.0% dan 6.8%. Kami memproyeksikan EBITDA akan tumbuh +25.4% yoy dan laba bersih +19.1% yoy di FY23F. Pada FY24F, dengan pertumbuhan tarif cukai yang sama dengan tahun 2023, serta masih kesulitannya HMSP untuk menumbuhkan volume, maka EBITDA dan laba bersih diperkirakan akan melemah masing-masing -5.2% yoy dan -6.6% yoy.

Rekomendasi: SELL TP IDR 950/saham. Meskipun kinerja keuangan 1Q23 cukup baik, namun HMSP masih memiliki tantangan dari kenaikan beban cukai yang lebih tinggi pada 2Q23, serta kesulitannya untuk mendorong volume penjualan. Oleh sebab itu, kami masih merekomendasikan SELL saham HMSP dengan TP 950/saham. Upside Risk: Kenaikan volume dan harga jual rokok di atas ekspektasi.

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