PT Intra Golflink Resorts (GOLF), a golf hospitality company which owns and manages international championship standard golf courses in Bali and Sentul, aims to be the top golf hospitality player in Indonesia. In this regard, GOLF is poised to capitalize from 250,000 golf tourists to Indonesia per annum coupled with excellent property developments, driving topline to IDR 887bn in 2029F and reflecting 2025-29F CAGR of 25%. On the bottom-line, we expect EPS CAGR of +33% average over the same period. In terms of valuation, we arrive at IDR 250 TP on narrowing current RNAV from 56% to 50%.  BUY on 20% upside potential.

Golf tourism: ample room for growth. Golf, perceived as both leisure activity and sport, is witnessing a resurgence, thriving as an outdoor pursuit in post-pandemic world. Domestically, Indonesia has 14,084 registered golfers with 170 golf courses in 2022, making the 83 registered golfers per course and 250,000 golf tourists per annum, way below its peers in the region. Therefore, GOLF will enjoy a great deal of potential upside with newcomers, backed by solid growth in Indonesia’s international tourism amounting to 14mn international visitors (+22.5% YoY) in 2024F, before further rising to 16mn (+14.3) in 2025F, particularly with Bali as one of the world’s top destinations.

Strong 2025F-2029F revenue CAGR of 25% and EPS CAGR of 33%. Going forward, GOLF aims to create a sustainable recurring revenue stream by monetizing its golf courses through hospitality and leisure. That said, we expect topline growth in 2028F to reach IDR 846bn (+42.4% YoY) as the hotel commences its operation with substantial contribution stemming from GOLF’s driving range. However, we expect GOLF’s revenue to slow in 2024F to IDR 163bn (-8% YoY) due to the construction of its hotel & villa segment alongside closure of holes 13-18 in Palm Hill for Sequoia Hills development and low recognition of residential sales. We project the positive outcome in 2025F with revenue growth of 122% YoY mainly from residential sales recognition from JO with TRIN IJ in Sequoia Hills and NKG Villa, allowing for GOLF to book 2029F revenue up to IDR 887bn, reflecting 2025F-2029F CAGR of 25%. On the bottom-line, we expect EPS CAGR of +33% average over the same period.

Initiate with BUY and IDR 250 TP based on 50% discount to RNAV. Led by Darma Mangkuluhur Hutomo as President Commissioner and Dwi Febri Astuti as President Director, GOLF is expected to maintain its solid balance sheet with net cash position through 2029F. On the margin side, we expect relative stability with GPM at 58-60%, followed by OPM of 25%-28%, and NPM of 22%-29% throughout 2025F-2029F. In terms of valuation, we arrive at IDR 250 TP on narrowing current RNAV of 56% to 50%.  BUY on 20% upside potential. Risks to our call: lower-than-expected tourist arrivals, delayed developments, and cost overruns.