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09 December 2024

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Gold Weekly (02-06 December 2024): Avg. USD 2,640/oz (+0.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average gold prices was relatively flat +0.2% WoW to USD 2,640/oz (from USD 2,635/oz), while the DXY index decreased to USD 106.2 (-0.15% WoW). Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as UST yields hiked following the release of weekly jobless claims data, with market players awaiting US nonfarm payrolls report for further insights into the Fed’s rate policy.
  • In November, US job growth report showed gradual easing of the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising +227,000, above the expected 200,000. The data strengthened expectations of another interest rate cut, with traders now seeing 87% chance of 25bps reduction in December. The potential rate cut has supported gold's rally this year, as lower rates enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold.
  • We maintain our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,400/oz (YTD: USD 2,373/oz), as heated geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain gold’s appeal as safe-haven asset. Stock-wise, we retain BRMS as our top pick (TP IDR 500; USD 26.4/ton EV/Reserve FY25F), driven by its robust dore bullion production, strong earnings outlook, and substantial untapped assets potential.

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