Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

07 November 2023

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Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes

Beware of political swing!

·         Two scenarios for MKMK’s verdict

·         The first one focuses on the possible impacts of a ‘major ethical violation’ verdict.

·         The second one focuses on the possible impacts of a ‘minor ethical violation’ verdict.

The verdict of the Honorary Council of the Constitutional Court (MKMK) regarding alleged ethical violations of judges in ruling the requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates will be announced today. According to legal experts, the Constitutional Court's ruling cannot be overturned by MKMK’s verdict. However, political experts that we talked to said that if the MKMK ruled that the MK judges have commited major ethical violations, it could lead to delegitimization of MK’s ruling. As a consequence, the candidacy of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka is at risk of being delegitimized, and the MKMK might even request a rehearing of the lawsuit regarding the age limit for presidential and vice presidential candidates.

In this situation, Erick Thohir is  the favorite candidate to become Prabowo's running mate, thanks to his high electability. However, Golkar (a major Prabowo supporter) might not support Erick's candidacy, as revealed by political expert Agung Baskoro to Kompas in the Obrolan Newsroom show (Golkar dinilai jadi faktor terpilihnya Gibran ketimbang Erick Thohir sebagai Bacawapres Prabowo). This increases the degree of speculation in long position over stocks affiliated with Erick Thohir.

Political experts that we talked to did not rule out the possibility of a ‘minor ethical violation’ verdict from MKMK. If that happens, then the Prabowo-Gibran candidacy will be slightly ‘smoother’, and resistance from the public, including intellectuals, legal practitioners, and student organizations, might continue. However, the chance of a major social movement like in 1998 is close to none, as the resilience of civil society has been severely eroded.

We advise investors to stay defensive, and our sectoral picks are:

Sector Recommendation: Food retailers, cigarettes, telco infrastructures, hospitals.

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 7 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 7 November 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 7 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 7 November 2023 (Eng)

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