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Daily Report

15 December 2023

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Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Euforia global terhadap peluang dovish pivot The Fed di 1Q24 mendorong aksi beli besar-besaran di pasar SBN kemarin (14/12) yang tercermin dari penurunan yield INDOGB dan INDON untuk seluruh tenor. Penurunan yield INDOGB terbesar dicatat oleh tenor 5Y (-17 bps menjadi 6.53%) yang selanjutnya diikuti oleh tenor 10Y (-12 bps menjadi 6.63%) dan 2Y (-6 bps menjadi 6.61%). Sementara itu, penurunan yield INDON terbesar dicatat oleh tenor 10Y (-25 bps menjadi 4.95%), yang diikuti oleh tenor 5Y (-22 bps menjadi 4.7%) dan 2Y (-20 bps menjadi 4.91%). Meskipun yield INDOGB dan INDON turun tajam, yield spread antara kedua instrumen ini dengan US treasury masih kompetitif dengan besaran 271 bps untuk INDOGB dan 103 bps untuk INDON. Bullish rally di pasar SBN kemungkinan berlanjut hari ini karena aksi beli yang terus berlangsung di pasar global, yang ditandai dengan penurunan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -10 dan -5 bps menjadi 3.92% dan 2.12%, serta kenaikan indeks obligasi EMBI untuk Emerging Market 1.8%. Kami memperkirakan peluang penurunan yield 10Y INDOGB sudah terbatas karena posisi yield saat ini berada pada batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.66%), sehingga kami merekomendasikan investor untuk mempertimbangkan tenor 5Y dan 2Y maupun INDON. Sementara itu, Rupiah berpeluang terapresiasi ke rentang IDR 13,500-14,500 per USD karena pelemahan indeks dolar -0.9% menjadi 102 tadi malam.

Fixed Income News: PTPP berencana terbitkan obligasi korporasi pada bulan April 2024. Penerbitan obligasi tersebut rencananya hendak digunakan untuk mebiayai belanja modal (capital expenditure) FY24 senilai IDR 1.5tn dan pembiayaan kembali (refinancing). Untuk memenuhi persyaratan administratif, PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) akan mengirim dokumen yang diperlukan ke Otoritas Jasa Keuangan bulan Maret 2023. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: ECB dan BOE pertahankan suku bunga acuan masing-masing di 4.5% dan 5.25%. Selain itu, para pejabat dari Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan Inggris (BOE) kembali menekankan komitmen mereka untuk mempertahankan suku bunga di level saat ini untuk waktu yang lebih lama. Akan tetapi, pernyataan mereka tidak digubris oleh para pelaku pasar global yang tengah mengalami euforia dovish pivot. Hal ini juga disebabkan oleh keputusan ECB merevisi turun proyeksi inflasi 2023 dan 2024 masing-masing menjadi 5.4% dan 2.7% (Prev: 5.6% & 3.2%). (Financial Times)

Domestic Economic News: Kemenparekraf targetkan 9.5-14.3 juta kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di 2024. Target tersebut lebih tinggi dibandingkan target tahun ini sebesar 8.5 juta wisatawan. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif, jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara tahun ini sudah mencapai 9.5 juta per Oktober 2023 dengan estimasi kontribusi sebesar USD 7bn. (Emitennews)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Desember 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Desember 2023 (Ind)

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