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Daily Report

04 December 2023

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Tekanan inflasi November melebihi ekspektasi

  • Inflasi CPI naik melebihi konsensus di bulan November menjadi 2.86% yoy (Oct: 2.56% yoy; Cons: & SSI: 2.7% yoy), tetapi tekanan inflasi inti masih sejalan dengan ekspektasi sebesar 1.87% yoy (Oct: 1.91% yoy; Cons: & SSI: 1.9% yoy).
  • Merespon tekanan inflasi pangan yang lebih kuat di bulan November sebesar 7.19% yoy (SSI: 6.3% yoy) kami merevisi naik proyeksi inflasi CPI kami menjadi 2.8% yoy untuk 2024 (Prev: 2.6% yoy) dan 3.4% yoy untuk 2025 (Prev: 3.3% yoy).
  • Kami juga menyiapkan skenario inflasi bearish untuk mengantisipasi tekanan inflasi pangan yang lebih kuat lagi di bulan Desember (asumsi 3% mom berdasarkan dampak El Niño 2014-2015).

Inflasi CPI naik melebihi konsensus pada bulan November menjadi 2.86% yoy (Oct: 2.56% yoy; Cons: & SSI: 2.7% yoy). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh tekanan inflasi pangan yang lebih kuat dari proyeksi kami, yaitu sebesar 7.19% yoy (SSI: 6.3% yoy). Kenaikan inflasi pangan disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga sejumlah bahan pokok, seperti bawang putih (36.7% yoy; Oct: 34.6% yoy), gula (6.7% yoy; Oct: 5.2% yoy), daging ayam (5.7% yoy; Oct: 4.2% yoy), telur (4% yoy; Oct: 3.3% yoy), dan cabai rawit (2.2% yoy; Oct: -24.7% yoy). Sementara itu, tekanan inflasi dari kenaikan harga beras sedikit berkurang menjadi 9.6% yoy (Oct: 10% yoy). Kami memperkirakan tekanan inflasi dari barang-barang tersebut akan naik di bulan Desember akibat efek musiman peningkatan konsumsi selama libur Natal dan Tahun Baru.

Sedangkan, inflasi inti CPI turun tipis menjadi 1.87% yoy yang masih sejalan dengan konsensus maupun proyeksi kami (Oct: 1.91% yoy; Cons: & SSI: 1.9% yoy). Perlambatan inflasi inti tidaklah mengejutkan mengingat kebijakan suku bunga tinggi Bank Indonesia yang menyebabkan pertumbuhan uang beredar di bulan Oktober turun menjadi 3.4% yoy atau secara rata-rata berjalan 6 bulanan menjadi 5.7% yoy (lihat Chart 1).

Berdasarkan rilis inflasi bulan November, kami merevisi naik proyeksi inflasi FY24 dan FY25 menjadi 2.8% dan 3.4% yoy (Prev: 2.6% & 3.3% yoy). Puncak inflasi pangan tetap kami perkirakan akan terjadi pada bulan Juli sebesar 8.4% yoy (Prev: 7.3% yoy). Sementara itu, puncak inflasi pangan tahun ini diprediksi sudah tercapai di 7.2% yoy (Prev: 6.3% yoy; lihat Chart 2).

Selain merevisi proyeksi inflasi CPI, kami juga menyiapkan skenario inflasi CPI bearish untuk mengantisipasi tekanan inflasi pangan yang lebih kuat di akhir tahun. Skenario bearish tersebut kami dasarkan pada pengalaman inflasi masa El Niño 2014-2015 dengan inflasi pangan bulanan 3.2% mom. Dengan asumsi inflasi pangan 3% mom dan inflasi CPI headline 0.8% mom di bulan Desember, kami memprediksi inflasi pangan FY24 masih akan naik menjadi 8.2% yoy dan puncak inflasi FY25 pada bulan Juli akan mencapai 9.3% yoy, sebelum menurun menjadi 5.7% yoy pada akhir 2025. Inflasi CPI headline FY24 dan FY25 diprediksi akan mencapai 3% dan 3.5% yoy (lihat Chart 2).

Kami juga menggunakan kesempatan ini untuk merevisi proyeksi suku bunga BI dan yield 10Y INDOGB. Perubahan proyeksi suku bunga BI 7DRRR, kami buat berdasarkan pernyataan Gubernur Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo dalam acara Pertemuan Tahunan BI 2023 yang akan mempertahankan suku bunga di tingkat 6% sepanjang 2024 (BI bakal tahan suku bunga hingga 2025). Berdasarkan hal ini, kami memproyeksikan pemangkasan suku bunga BI 7DRRR sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.5% di 2024 (Prev: 75 bps) dengan asumsi pemangkasan suku bunga FFR 100 bps menjadi 4.5% (lihat Chart 3) dan yield 10Y INDOGB di 6.9% untuk FY24 dan 6.5% untuk FY25 (lihat Chart 4).

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