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Economic Data Tracker

02 November 2023

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Underlying inflasi Oktober tetap rendah, meskipun ada kenaikan inflasi harga pangan dan transportasi

Inflasi CPI naik sesuai konsensus pada bulan Oktober menjadi 2.56% yoy (Sep: 2.3% yoy; Cons: 2.6%) akibat El Niño yang menaikkan inflasi harga pangan dan tingginya harga minyak ICP yang meningkatkan inflasi transportasi. Walaupun demikian, inflasi inti tetap melemah menjadi 1.91% yoy sesuai perkiraan kami (Sep: 2% yoy). Pelemahan ini diakibatkan oleh kebijakan kontraksi moneter BI melalui suku bunga tinggi. Kami memperkirakan inflasi inti CPI berpotensi turun lebih rendah menyentuh 1.7% yoy pada 1H24 dan 2-2.1% di akhir tahun 2024 (Prev: 1.8% yoy & 2.2-2.3% yoy) akibat kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR di bulan Oktober serta potensi kenaikan di bulan November. Sinyal kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR di bulan November terlihat dari kenaikan suku bunga diskonto SRBI kedua pada tanggal (27/10) menjadi 6.97% (25/10: 6.76%), setelah kenaikan sebelumnya pada tanggal (20/10) menjadi 6.71% (18/10: 6.43%) akibat naiknya suku bunga BI 7DRRR sebesar 1X25 bps menjadi 6% pada tanggal (19/10).

Inflasi CPI naik di bulan Oktober menjadi 2.56% yoy sesuai ekspektasi pasar, walaupun lebih tinggi dari prediksi kami (Sep: 2.3% yoy; Cons: 2.6% yoy; SSI: 2.4% yoy). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh dua hal. Yang pertama adalah kenaikan inflasi harga pangan menjadi 5.33% yoy, yang sedikit lebih rendah dari prediksi kami (Sep: 3.6% yoy; SSI: 5.6% yoy; lihat Figur 1), karena efek kemarau panjang El Niño. Yang kedua adalah tingginya harga minyak ICP pada bulan September sebesar USD 90.17 per bbl (Aug: USD 82.59 per bbl) yang menyebabkan naiknya harga BBM non-subsidi, tarif pesawat dan kereta api. Efek inflasi ini lebih kuat daripada dugaan kami dan menyebabkan inflasi transportasi naik menjadi 1.2% yoy (Sep: 1% yoy; lihat Figur 2).

Walaupun inflasi umum meningkat, inflasi inti melemah menjadi 1.91% yoy sesuai perkiraan kami (Sep: & Cons: 2% yoy; SSI: 1.9% yoy). Pelemahan inflasi inti disebabkan oleh kebijakan kontraksi moneter Bank Indonesia melalui suku bunga tinggi yang menekan pertumbuhan suplai uang beredar M2 (lihat Figur 3).

Menurut kami, keputusan BI untuk menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 1X25 bps menjadi 6% di bulan Oktober akan menekan inflasi tetap rendah pada bulan-bulan mendatang, apalagi dengan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga 7DRRR (seven-day reverse repo rate) pada bulan November. Kemungkinan kenaikan tersebut, kami dasarkan pada pergerakan suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M, yang naik menjadi 6.97% (25/10: 6.76%) pada lelang hari Jumat tanggal (27/10). Efek kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR 1X25 bps pada tanggal (19/10) sudah tercermin pada kenaikan suku bunga diskonto sebelumnya tanggal (20/10) menjadi 6.71% (18/10: 6.43%; lihat Figur 4).

Menurut estimasi kami, apabila BI menaikkan suku bunga 7DRRR lagi di bulan November, inflasi inti CPI berpotensi menyentuh level yang lebih rendah dari estimasi sebelumnya menjadi 1.7% yoy pada 1H24 (Prev: 1.8%). Tingkat inflasi inti untuk FY24 juga akan terpengaruh, turun menuju rentang 2-2.1% (Prev: 2.2-2.3%).

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