Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

20 October 2023

By

As BI raise its 7DRRR to 6%, we project SUN 10Y yield to reach 7.4%

Bank Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR diluar dugaan menjadi 6% (Sep: & Cons: & SSI: 5.75%). Menurut kami, BI mengambil keputusan ini karena hendak mencegah depresiasi Rupiah hingga IDR 16,000 per USD. Selain itu, BI mencoba mengantisipasi pelemahan Rupiah lebih lanjut dengan menerbitkan SVBI dan SUVBI (Sekuritas dan Sukuk Valas Bank Indonesia) yang serupa dengan instrumen SRBI. Menurut perhitungan kami, BI harus menawarkan suku bunga diskonto 5.3-5.9% agar dapat bersaing dengan yield US treasury bills pada 5.35-5.55%. Walaupun demikian, kami berpendapat bahwa kenaikan suku bunga BI hanya dapat menahan laju pelemahan Rupiah tetapi tidak dapat menghentikan karena depresiasi Rupiah disebabkan oleh aksi jual 10Y UST dengan target yield 5% yang menyebar ke pasar SBN. Kenaikan suku bunga BI berisiko menambah upside risk kenaikan yield 10Y INDOGB dan capital outflow dari pasar SBN.

Bank Indonesia mengejutkan pasar dengan menaikkan suku bunga 7DRRR (7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) 1X25 bps menjadi 6% (Sep: & Cons: & SSI: 5.75%). BI juga menaikkan suku bunga deposit facility dan lending facility masing-masing menjadi 5.25% dan 6.75%. Kenaikan suku bunga ini dilakukan untuk menahan depresiasi Rupiah yang terjadi sejak Juni lalu dengan puncak tertinggi siang ini di level IDR 15,850 per USD. Sebelumnya, kami memperkirakan BI masih akan memanfaatkan cadangan devisa sebesar USD 8bn untuk intervensi langsung di pasar valuta asing hingga bulan November seperti pada bulan Maret hingga Mei lalu (lihat Chart 1). Akan tetapi, kenaikan suku bunga hari ini mengindikasikan BI tidak ingin mengambil risiko depresiasi Rupiah hingga IDR 16,000 per USD.

Selain menaikkan suku bunga, BI juga mengumumkan rencana penerbitan Sekuritas (SVBI) dan Sukuk Valas Bank Indonesia (SUVBI) yang serupa dengan SRBI untuk menjaga kestabilan Rupiah. Sejak penerbitan perdana pada tanggal (15/9), BI sudah menerbitkan SRBI IDR 120.4tn dengan tingkat penawaran IDR 135.3tn (lihat Chart 2). Agar imbal hasil SVBI dan SUVBI menarik bagi investor, BI harus menawarkan instrumen tersebut di suku bunga diskonto 5.3-5.9% (1-12 bulan) dengan acuan yield US treasury bills (3-12 bulan) 5.35-5.55%.

Untuk meminimalkan dampak negatif kenaikan suku bunga terhadap kredit perbankan maupun pertumbuhan PDB, BI merilis sejumlah aturan relaksasi makroprudensial. Aturan ini merupakan ekspansi dari relaksasi sebelumnya di bidang hilirisasi pertambangan, pertanian, perkebunan, dan perikanan maupun UMKM, green economy, perumahan, pariwisata dan ekonomi kreatif. Relaksasi tambahan ini meliputi downpayment 0% untuk kredit kendaraan bermotor dan property. Sementara itu, rasio countercyclical capital buffer dan intermediasi makroprudensial dipertahankan di level masing-masing 0% dan 84-94%.

Menurut kami, naiknya suku bunga BI bisa mengurangi laju depresiasi Rupiah, tetapi tidak menghentikannya karena penyebab fenomena ini adalah aksi jual di pasar US treasury hingga yield 10Y UST mencapai 5%. Untungnya yield 10Y UST sudah mencapai 4.91% semalam (18/10), sehingga upside risk dari 10Y UST sudah lebih terbatas.

Akan tetapi, yield spread antara 10Y INDOGB Vs. UST masih terlalu rendah di 197 bps (rata-rata 2H23 229 bps), sehingga kami memprediksi kenaikan yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan berlanjut minimal 30 bps menjadi 7.2%. Kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR hari ini berisiko menambah upside risk yield 10Y INDOGB di akhir tahun menjadi 7.4% (lihat Chart 3). Hal ini bisa memperpanjang jangka waktu arus keluar modal asing (foreign outflow) di pasar obligasi yang sampai saat ini sudah mencapai USD 2.34bn (lihat Chart 4). Menurut kami, masih ada risiko yang signifikan terhadap depresiasi Rupiah menuju IDR 16,000 per USD.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

EDT-231020 (Ind)
EDT-231020 (Eng)

Download PDF

EDT-231020 (Ind)
EDT-231020 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024

Daily Report

May 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 16, 2024

Daily Report

May 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

May 15, 2024

BRMS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 230 – Improved Earnings Ahead

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 15 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 15, 2024

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Macro: 14 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 14, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

Samuel Weekly Macro: 1st Week of May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 13, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 08, 2024

Daily Report

May 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 07, 2024

Daily Report

May 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 06, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 03, 2024

Daily Report

May 3, 2024

JCI is Expected to Move Sideways Today

Daily Report

May 2, 2024

JCI Is Expected to Decline Today

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 02, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 21, 2024

AKRA: 4Q23 Results