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Daily Report

21 September 2023

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Kami memproyeksikan pemangkasan 7DRRR dan pergerakan yield 10Y SUN yang lebih landai di 2024

Bank Indonesia kembali mempertahankan suku bunga 7DRRR di 5.75% untuk 8 bulan berturut-turut sesuai konsensus karena tekanan depresiasi terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah yang masih berlanjut hingga bulan September. Akan tetapi, kami melihat BI akan lebih mengandalkan instrumen SRBI daripada kebijakan suku bunga dan intervensi langsung di pasar valuta asing yang menguras cadangan devisa untuk menstabilkan Rupiah, karena tingkat permintaan yang tinggi pada dua lelang sebelumnya. Meskipun begitu, kebijakan suku bunga BI masih akan terkekang oleh kebijakan moneter The Fed yang semakin hawkish dan kenaikan tajam yield UST. Oleh sebab itu, kami merevisi proyeksi pemangkasan 7DRRR 2024 menjadi hanya sebesar 50 bps ke 5.25% (Prev: 125 bps ke 4.5%) dan yield 10Y INDOGB menjadi 6.6% untuk 2023 (Prev: 6.2%) dan 6.4% untuk 2024 (Prev: 5.6%).

 

Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7-day reverse repo rate (7DRRR) di 5.75% sesuai konsensus (Aug: 5.75%). Suku bunga fasilitas deposito dan pinjaman (deposit and lending facility) juga dipertahankan di level masing-masing 5% dan 6.5% (Aug: 5% & 6.5%). Keputusan ini didasarkan pada kondisi Rupiah yang terus mengalami depresiasi rata-rata 0.5% mtd menjadi IDR 15,320 per USD di bulan September (Lihat Chart 1). Namun, kami melihat BI akan lebih mengandalkan instrumen Sertifikat Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) dibandingkan menggunakan suku bunga atau intervensi langsung di pasar valuta asing yang menguras cadangan devisa untuk menstabilkan pergerakan Rupiah.

 

Hal ini terlihat dari selisih jumlah permintaan masuk dan target lelang SRBI yang baru diumumkan setelah Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI hari ini (21/9). Data BI menunjukkan terjadinya oversubscribed sebesar 4.2 kali dari target IDR 7tn pada lelang SRBI Jumat pekan lalu (15/9) dan 3.12 kali dari target IDR 5tn pada lelang SRBI Rabu kemarin (20/9). Saat ini jumlah SRBI yang beredar di secondary market sudah mencapai IDR 37.7tn, hanya IDR 5.6tn lebih rendah dari SPN dan SPNS yang beredar (lihat Chart 2). Menurut kami, peran SRBI untuk stabilisasi Rupiah akan menjadi semakin penting di masa mendatang, terutama dengan lelang SRBI yang akan dilakukan dua kali seminggu (SRBI terbit 15 September 2023, lelang 2 kali seminggu).

 

Walaupun BI sudah memiliki kebijakan alternatif untuk menstabilkan Rupiah, kebijakan suku bunga BI di masa mendatang kemungkinan akan terkekang oleh kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve yang semakin hawkish dan kenaikan tajam yield US treasury. Meskipun BI tidak mengakui hal ini secara langsung, BI menyatakan akan memperhatikan arah kebijakan The Fed setiap bulannya dan pergerakan UST dalam pengambilan kebijakan moneter di investor call sore ini (21/9).

 

Mempertimbangkan situasi ini, kami merevisi turun proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga kami di 2024 menjadi 50 bps ke 5.25% (Prev: 125 bps ke 4.5) dan menaikkan proyeksi yield 10Y INDOGB menjadi 6.8% untuk 3Q23 (Prev: 6.5%), 6.6% untuk FY23 (Prev: 6.2%), dan 6.4% untuk FY24 (Prev: 5.6%). Proyeksi ini dibuat berdasarkan konsensus pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed sebesar 2X25 bps di 2H23 serta konsensus yield 10Y UST sebesar 3.9% dan 3.6%. Dengan kata lain, pergerakan 7DRRR dan yield 10Y INDOGB akan cenderung melandai hingga akhir 2024 (lihat Chart 3 dan 4).

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