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Daily Report

23 August 2023

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Defisit neraca berjalan dan capital outflow bayang-bayangi 2Q23 dan 3Q23

Posisi neraca berjalan dan finansial Indonesia berbalik menjadi defisit di 2Q23 akibat turunnya harga komoditas global, peningkatan repatriasi dividen oleh investor asing serta keputusan The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga terminal pada Juni lalu. Menurut kami, defisit neraca berjalan dan capital outflow akan berlanjut di 3Q23. Walaupun defisit neraca berjalan sudah kami antisipasi pada proyeksi sebelumnya, capital outflow 3Q23 yang disebabkan oleh kemerosotan ekonomi Tiongkok dan mundurnya ekspektasi siklus pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed menjadi 2Q24 (Prev: 1Q24) terjadi diluar dugaan kami. Sehingga, kami memutuskan untuk merevisi naik proyeksi USD/IDR menjadi IDR 15,000 per USD untuk FY23 (Prev: IDR 14,900 per USD) dan menurunkan proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI FY23 menjadi 25 bps ke 5.5% (Prev: 5.25%). 

Posisi neraca berjalan Indonesia berbalik menjadi defisit pada 2Q23 sebesar USD (-1.93)bn, yang jauh lebih tinggi dari konsensus tetapi lebih rendah dari proyeksi kami (1Q23: USD 2.98bn; Cons: USD (-268)mn; SSI: (-4.5)bn). Defisit neraca berjalan 2Q23 diakibatkan oleh penurunan harga komoditas global yang menggerus surplus neraca dagang barang sebesar USD (-4.35)bn menjadi USD 10.35bn (1Q23: USD 14.7bn) dan meningkatnya repatriasi dividen oleh investor asing, terutama investasi portofolio mereka, yang memperlebar defisit neraca pendapatan utama sebesar USD (-538)mn menjadi USD (-9.15)bn (1Q23: USD (-8.61)bn).

Posisi neraca finansial Indonesia juga berbalik menjadi defisit di 2Q23 sebesar USD (-4.97)bn (1Q23: USD 3.68bn). Indonesia mengalami capital outflow pada 2Q23 karena keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat untuk meningkatkan suku bunga terminal dari 5.125% menjadi 5.625%. Sedangkan, Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk tetap mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di 5.75%. Hal ini mendorong investor asing untuk mengurangi risiko investasi di emerging markets, termasuk Indonesia dengan menjual instrumen utang jangka panjang neto senilai USD (-1.96)bn dan instrumen investasi lainnya, termasuk pinjaman perbankan.

Akibat defisit neraca berjalan dan capital outflow yang terjadi dalam waktu yang sama, posisi neraca pembayaran Indonesia berbalik menjadi defisit USD (- 7.37)bn pada 2Q23 (1Q23: USD 6.52bn).

Walaupun surplus neraca berjalan rolling sum 12M di 2Q23 (0.71% terhadap PDB) lebih tinggi dari proyeksi kami (SSI: 0.5%), kami tetap mempertahankan proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan untuk FY23, (-0.6%) terhadap PDB, dan FY24, (-1.4%). Keputusan ini didasarkan pada proyeksi pelemahan harga komoditas global lebih lanjut di 2H23 maupun 2024 akibat memburuknya perekonomian Tiongkok selama beberapa bulan terakhir (lihat Chart 1). Mencuatnya kembali krisis gagal bayar utang sektor properti di negara tersebut juga dapat menekan pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok tahun ini hingga kurang dari 5% (4.3-4.8%).

Meskipun demikian, kami merevisi naik proyeksi USD/IDR kami untuk 3Q23 dan 4Q23 masing-masing menjadi IDR 15,200 dan 15,000 per USD (Prev: IDR 14,700 dan 14,900 per USD) karena kuatnya tekanan capital outflow yang juga diikuti dengan bearish pressure terhadap pasar obligasi global pada 3Q23. Hal ini tercermin dari kenaikan yield 10Y UST hingga 4.3%, tertinggi sejak 2007, dan 10Y INDOGB hingga mendekati 6.7%. Kami juga meningkatkan proyeksi yield 10Y INDOGB kami untuk 3Q23 dan 4Q23 menjadi 6.5% dan 6.2% (Prev: 6.2% dan 6%).  Mempertimbangkan situasi terkini, kami menurunkan proyeksi rate cut BI kami menjadi 25 bps (5.5%) pada 4Q23 dengan tingkat keyakinan 3/5 (lihat Table 1 dan Chart 2).

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