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Emiten Report

17 July 2023

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Cement Sector: The Sun Has Finally Emerged

The Sun Has Finally Emerged

Konsumsi semen domestik Jun-23 naik +8.5% MoM. Volume penjualan semen domestik pada Jun-23 tercatat turun tipis -1.1% YoY namun mampu tumbuh +8.5% MoM  mencapai 5.3 juta ton dengan kumulatif penjualan selama 1H23 di 27.4 juta ton (-4.9% yoy). Penurunan di 1H23 diakibatkan adanya libur Idul Adha yang lebih panjang serta pembatasan transportasi di berbagai daerah yang menghambat penjualan. Penjualan semen kantung tercatat di 3.8 juta ton (+5.6% MoM, -4.5% YoY) namun penjualan semen curah mengalami lonjakan volume dengan mencatatkan penjualan sebesar 1.5 juta ton (+16.8% MoM, +8.7% YoY). INTP mencatatkan penjualan sebesar 1.4 juta ton (+7.3% MoM, +3.5% YoY) dengan kumulatif 1H23 di 7.5 juta ton (+4.5% YoY). Sedangkan SMGR mencatatkan penjualan sebesar 2.8 juta ton (+8.5% MoM, +11.2% YoY) dengan kumulatif 1H23 di 14.2 juta ton (+1.8% YoY).

 

Preview 2Q23 result. Selama 2Q23, baik SMGR dan INTP mencatatkan pertumbuhan penjualan domestik sebesar +4.5% YoY dan +7.8% YoY di tengah jumlah permintaan secara industri yang masih lemah. Hal positif tersebut diikuti oleh peningkatan pangsa pasar untuk SMGR mencapai 51.8% (vs 50.2% 2Q22 *include-SMBR) dan INTP mencapai 27.2% (vs 24.0% 2Q22). Kinerja positif tersebut membuat kami optimis akan hasil 2Q23 yang akan di rilis pada akhir Jul-23 dengan SMGR diproyeksikan akan mencatatkan penjualan sebesar IDR 7.7 triliun (-13.6% QoQ, +5.4% YoY) dan INTP diproyeksikan akan mencatatkan penjualan sebesar IDR 3.4 triliun (-19.1% QoQ, +2.4% YoY) dengan asumsi ASP yang relative akan lebih stabil.

 

Penjualan di 2H23 berpotensi bertumbuh +7.6% YoY. Secara historikal sejak tahun 2018, kontribusi penjualan semen nasional di 1H sebesar 44-45% dibandingkan penjualan tahunan. Kami memperkirakan pada FY23, penjualan semen nasional akan bergerak flat cenderung menguat tipis sebesar +1% YoY, dan dengan asumsi penjualan semen yang akan membaik di 2H, penjualan semen akan diperkirakan mencapai 36 juta ton (+7.6% YoY) dengan kontribusi sebesar 55-56%. Penjualan pada 2H23 diproyeksikan akan meningkat berkat dorongan dari tahun pemilu terutama untuk sektor semen curah sebagai motor utama mengingat pertumbuhan 1H23 yang solid (+4.1% YoY). Sementara itu, segmen semen kantung masih akan terkendali akibat permintaan yang masih belum kunjung pulih.

 

Rating NETRAL. Kami menegaskan kembali peringkat NETRAL untuk sektor semen; kami memperkirakan volume penjualan cenderung flat sepanjang FY23F (-1.0 s.d +1.0% YoY), dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan dari bulk cement namun bagged cement masih cenderung tertekan. Kami merekomendasi BUY untuk SMGR (TP: IDR  7,630; -1.0 SD rata-rata PER 5 tahun) dan INTP (TP: IDR 12,200; -0.7 SD rata-rata PER 5 tahun). Risiko utama: Fluktuasi permintaan semen nasional, bahan bakar dan biaya distribusi.

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