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Daily Report

30 November 2023

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Bullish rally pasar UST karena dovish pivot Waller

Bullish rally terjadi di pasar US Treasury setelah salah seorang gubernur Federal Reserve Christopher Waller mengirim sinyal dovish pivot dalam pidatonya di acara American Enterprise Institute semalam. Walaupun ada revisi naik terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan PDB Amerika Serikat 3Q23 menjadi 5.2% (Prev: 4.9%), Waller merasa percaya diri bahwa proses disinflasi akan tetap berada pada jalurnya dan tingkat pengangguran akan terjaga sesuai proyeksi Fed. Investor merespon hal ini dengan aksi beli di pasar obligasi yang menurunkan yield 10Y UST dan Bund -7 bps masing-masing menjadi 4.26% dan 2.43%. Aksi beli tersebut berdampak positif terhadap obligasi di emerging market, yang terlihat dari kenaikan indeks EMBI 0.9%. Pasar SBN yang masih dalam sentimen bullish kemarin (kenaikan indeks ICBI dan IDMA 0.3%) akan diuntungkan, terutama untuk instrumen INDON seluruh tenor serta INDOGB tenor 2Y dan 5Y yang memiliki potensi penurunan yield hingga batas bawah JIBOR 1W (6.25%). Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan mengalami konsolidasi pada rentang 6.55-6.65% karena posisi yield saat ini lebih rendah dari batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.66%). Rupiah juga berpotensi mengalami konsolidasi di rentang IDR 15,400-15,500 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan atas lelang SRBI turun menjadi IDR 8.9tn (24/11: IDR 11.5tn; 22/11: IDR 15.3tn). Penurunan permintaan SRBI diikuti dengan naiknya tingkat permintaan di lelang SUN kemarin menjadi IDR 48.7tn (14/11 IDR 33.7tn). Sementara itu, tingkat suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M turun tipis menjadi 6.87% (24/11: 6.88%). Menurut kami, penurunan permintaan ini dipicu oleh meningkatnya sentimen bullish atas instrumen INDOGB seiring dengan apresiasi Rupiah dalam 2 minggu terakhir. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Jerman turun menjadi 3.2% yoy pada bulan November (Oct: 3.8% yoy; Cons: 3.5% yoy). Inflasi HICP Jerman juga turun lebih rendah dari konsensus menjadi 2.3% yoy (Oct: 2.7% yoy; Cons: 3% yoy). Penurunan ini merupakan katalis positif bagi Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan MRO pada level 4.5%. Kami memperkirakan ECB akan mulai memasuki siklus pemangkasan suku bunga di 3Q24. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah berencana naikkan subsidi motor listrik menjadi IDR 10mn per unit (Now: IDR 7mn per unit). Rencana ini diusulkan karena penjualan motor listrik yang jauh di bawah target pemerintah, yakni 6,567 unit (target: 200,000 unit). Dari jumlah tersebut, 4,312 unit telah diverifikasi. Untuk meningkatkan penjualan motor listrik dalam jangka pendek, Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Listrik Indonesia (Aismoli) berharap pemerintah mempercepat implementasi Intruksi Presiden No. 7/2022 tentang penggunaan kendaraan listrik di instansi pemerintah pusat/daerah dan BUMN. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 November 2023 (Eng)

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