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Solid earnings despite higher royalty rate. In 3Q25, BRMS posted solid results with revenue of USD 63mn (+9.0% QoQ), bringing 9M25 revenue to USD 184mn (+69.2% YoY), in line with both our and consensus estimates (75% and 76% of FY25F, respectively). The topline growth was primarily driven by higher gold revenue of USD 61mn (+8.7% QoQ), supported by strong average selling price of USD 3,468/oz (+5.7% QoQ) and higher sales volumes of 17,558 oz (+2.9% QoQ). Despite gross margin pressure, which fell to 49.5% (2Q25: 62.7%) due to higher royalty rate of 15.7% (2Q25: 13.8%), lower-than-expected mining costs—thanks to improved gold grade of 1.5 g/t (2Q25: 1.4 g/t)—enabled gross profit to beat expectations (at 80.7% and 81.7% of our and consensus forecasts, respectively). On the operating front, EBITDA came in at USD 21mn (-15.7% QoQ), translating to 9M25 EBITDA of USD 76mn (+121.2% YoY), above our (85.1%) and consensus (79.7%) estimates.
Upcoming project to drive earnings ahead. To capitalize on higher ore grades from its underground mining project, BRMS plans to expand its first Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) plant capacity from 500 tons/day to 2,000 tons/day. The CIL expansion is expected to begin contributing by 4Q26 or early 2027, supporting the company’s next growth phase. Meanwhile, the underground mining project remains on track, targeting production by 4Q27 with estimated gold grade exceeding 4 g/t, which should meaningfully lift output and profitability. In addition, the Gorontalo copper project is expected to announce its JORC-compliant copper resource and reserve statement in 2027, marking a key milestone for future expansion and potential valuation re-rating.
Substantial earnings upgrades; reiterate BUY with higher SOTP-based TP of IDR 1,300. At this stage of the market cycle, we have sustantially revised up our forecasts, raising our gold price assumptions to USD 3,345/oz for 2025 and USD 4,500/oz for 2026, while also lowering our mining cost estimates to reflect 9M25 performance. As a result, we upgrade our 2025F and 2026F earnings by 34.6% and 72.6%, respectively. Following these revisions, we reiterate our BUY rating with higher SOTP-based TP of IDR 1,300/share, implying 40% upside potential. At current levels, BRMS trades at 2026F EV/Reserves of USD 12,183/oz, offering attractive valuation relative to peers. Key risks include lower-than-expected gold prices and potential project execution delays.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
