1Q25: Strong marketing sales on new residential projects in Bali. GOLF’s 1Q25 marketing sales surged +447.8% YoY to IDR 144.4bn (from IDR 26.4bn in 1Q24), reflecting strong public interest in the company’s residential projects in Bali (Figure 3). This should bode well for GOLF’s future revenue recognition with the handover of Links Golf Villas scheduled to commence in 4Q25F. Thus, we expect a turnaround in GOLF’s 1Q25 revenue which fell -13.7% YoY / -71.1% QoQ to IDR 28.5bn, mainly due to longer Ramadan period. Palm Hill Golf Club’s total rounds dropped -45.9% YoY to 6,776 with ASP of IDR 334k/round (-7.8% YoY), primarily due to ongoing renovations. Meanwhile, New Kuta Golf’s total rounds fell -4.1% YoY to 14,142, though its ASP rose +10.6% to IDR 1.1mn/round. Those declines led to considerable slip in golf revenue down -10.2% YoY to IDR 22.1bn (78% of total revenue).

Solid recurring & development construction progress to boost earnings. GOLF is making key upgrades at New Kuta Golf (NKG) to enhance customer experience and expand recurring income streams. Scheduled to open in July 2025, the new “Island Green” Par 3 Hole (Hole 17) is 96% complete, adding a signature attraction for golfers. Full course turf and renovations are 79% complete, ensuring that NKG remains competitive with leading golf destinations in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, The Links Golf Villa Bali Cluster 1 is 70% complete and on track for handover in 2H25 with sales of IDR 178bn to be recognized this year. The commercial area at The Links Golf Villa is set to break ground in July and is expected to be completed by December 2025, adding F&B and retail outlets to support both residents and golfers. We project positive 2025F results from GOLF with revenue growth of 83% YoY, primarily driven by residential sales recognition from joint venture (JV) with TRIN IJ in Sequoia Hills and NKG Villa. The additional sales are expected to allow GOLF to book 2029F revenue of up to IDR 888bn, reflecting 2025-29F CAGR of 25%. On the bottom line, we see average +22% EPS CAGR over the same period.

BUY with TP of IDR 275 on 50% discount to NAV. Led by Darma Mangkuluhur Hutomo as President Commissioner and Dwi Febri Astuti as President Director, GOLF is expected to maintain solid balance sheet with net cash position through 2029F. On the margin side, we anticipate relative stability, backed by Bali’s rising popularity as a tourist destination, allowing for GPM of 58-62%, OPM at 30-35%, and 29-32% NPM in 2025-29F. In terms of valuation, we arrive at IDR 275 TP (+24% upside potential) on narrowing current RNAV to 50% (Figure 4) given strong earnings growth ahead. BUY. Risks to our call include project developments delays, lower tourist arrivals and softer pre-sales.